Posts by Henry Hale

Henry Hale 02-06-2020
(Washington Post) (Co-authored with Olga Kamenchuk) During the impeachment hearings and trial of President Trump, former National Security Council official Fiona Hill and others accused Republican congressional leaders of adopting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s talking points. Why do so many in the GOP seem so unconcerned? Why have they concluded that the costs of associating with the Kremlin are worth it, given the political benefits of pushing...
Henry Hale 09-17-2019
(Post-Soviet Affairs) We know from prior research that non-democratic regimes can become vulnerable when elites anticipate succession at the top, but we know little about what shapes these elites’ expectations. This study examines connections between such expectations and Russia’s relationships to the outside world. Analysis of elite opinion data from the 2016 Survey of Russian Elites reveals strong associations between identifying Russia with European...
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Henry Hale 07-15-2019
(Journal of Conflict Resolution) Abstract: Brancati and Lucardi’s findings on the absence of “democracy protest” diffusion across borders raise important questions for the future of protest studies. I argue that this subfield would benefit from a stronger engagement with theory (in general) and from a “patronal politics” perspective (in particular) when it comes to researching protest in non-democratic regimes. This means curtailing a...
Henry Hale 07-08-2019
(Russian Politics) (Co-authors: Maria Lipman and Nikolay Petrov) Abstract: Russia’s political system must be understood as inherently dynamic, with constant regime change being essential to how the regime operates and survives. This regime change does not proceed monotonically toward ever tighter authoritarianism, but can move in both liberal and repressive directions at different times. While on aggregate the trend has been to greater authoritarianism...
Henry Hale 06-14-2019
Очередной выпуск серии «Либеральная миссия — Экспертиза» посвящен проблеме недемократической передачи власти на постсоветском пространстве. Различного рода операции «Преемник», династическое президентство, «тандемы», конституционные реформы, призванные обойти ограничения на количество сроков, — все это привычные реалии политических режимов постсоветской Евразии. Политические режимы и их бенефициары стремятся обезопасить себя от непредсказуемости «...
Henry Hale 11-30-2018
(Geopolitics) (Co-authored with Oxana Shevel and Olga Onuch) Abstract: How do people form beliefs about the factual content of major events when established geopolitical orders are violently challenged? Here, we address the tragic events of 2 May 2014, in Odesa, Ukraine. There, Euromaidan protest movement supporters and opponents clashed following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the onset of the Donbas conflict,...
Henry Hale 01-02-2018
До какой степени посткоммунистические страны все еще несут на себе печать коммунистического прошлого в наши дни, спустя более четверти века после падения коммунистических режимов? Одни склонны видеть в коммунизме источник всего плохого, что сейчас происходит в обществе, неудачный «эксперимент», приведший к глубочайшей деформации и разложению общества, которые создают непреодолимые препятствия на пути к экономическим реформам и к демократии. Другие видят в...
Henry Hale 11-14-2017
Are American sanctions hurting support for Putin? New political science research suggests the answer is no. This study was presented at the 2017 convention of the main association for specialists on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia (ASEEES) in Chicago, being one of many important policy relevant studies presented there. One of the most timely papers was presented by Columbia University’s Timothy Frye, whose study finds...
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Henry Hale 11-13-2017
Would massive fraud in Russia’s upcoming presidential election generate a backlash against the Kremlin, or would the population simply accept it as normal behavior by a regime they support? A new study suggests that fraud could well backfire, causing the Kremlin to lose supporters. I just returned from the 2017 convention of the main association for specialists on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia (ASEEES) in Chicago and this was one of...
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Henry Hale 09-20-2017
Украинский «евромайдан» не смог изменить политическую структуру в стране, а только привёл к власти новых олигархов, пишет Focus.  В государстве установился так называемый неопатримониальный режим, при котором власть сосредоточена в руках коррупционных кланов, лишь имитирующих прозападный курс и проведение реформ, рассказывает автор статьи Андреас Умланд. В 2015 году политолог Генри Хейл опубликовал монографию под названием «Патрональная политика: динамика...

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About the author

Professor of Political Science and International Affairs; Co-director, PONARS Eurasia
George Washington University