Posts by Henry Hale

Henry Hale 11-14-2017
Are American sanctions hurting support for Putin? New political science research suggests the answer is no. This study was presented at the 2017 convention of the main association for specialists on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia (ASEEES) in Chicago, being one of many important policy relevant studies presented there. One of the most timely papers was presented by Columbia University’s Timothy Frye, whose study finds...
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Henry Hale 11-13-2017
Would massive fraud in Russia’s upcoming presidential election generate a backlash against the Kremlin, or would the population simply accept it as normal behavior by a regime they support? A new study suggests that fraud could well backfire, causing the Kremlin to lose supporters. I just returned from the 2017 convention of the main association for specialists on Russia, Eastern Europe, and Eurasia (ASEEES) in Chicago and this was one of...
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Henry Hale 09-20-2017
Украинский «евромайдан» не смог изменить политическую структуру в стране, а только привёл к власти новых олигархов, пишет Focus.  В государстве установился так называемый неопатримониальный режим, при котором власть сосредоточена в руках коррупционных кланов, лишь имитирующих прозападный курс и проведение реформ, рассказывает автор статьи Андреас Умланд. В 2015 году политолог Генри Хейл опубликовал монографию под названием «Патрональная политика: динамика...
Henry Hale 08-16-2017
На данный момент никто уже не питает иллюзий, будто Россия — демократическая страна. Однако западный публичный дискурс книг и блогов последнего времени все чаще объявляет Владимира Путина прямо-таки новым «царем» России (при этом «царский» статус Путина может мыслиться и как благо для страны, и как зло); а если и не царем, то, по крайней мере, главой самого большого в мире мафиозного синдиката. Эти сравнения привлекают своей простотой и отсылкой к разным...
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Henry Hale 07-27-2017
Андреас Умланд (Новое время). Когда сегодня пресловутые украинские кланы предъявляют претензии на удержание своей власти, западным партнерам стоит задуматься о том, кого, где и как поддерживать В Киеве происходят странные вещи. Весной 2017 два известных украинских политика – Николай Мартыненко, бывший народный депутат Верховной Рады, и Роман Насиров, бывший глава Фискальной службы Украины – были арестованы по обвинениям в коррупции. Обоих подозреваемых,...
Henry Hale 06-05-2017
I just got back from a great conference at the University of Helsinki and thought I’d share some of the most striking research findings presented there. Celebrating the conclusion of the fifth year of the Aleksanteri Institute’s Finland Distinguished Professorship held by Vladimir Gel’man, it focused on “Politics and Governance in Russia: Comparative Perspectives.” Several papers examined how Putin “rules.” Alexander Libman presented a particularly...
Henry Hale 05-04-2017
(Seminar) Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. Narendra Modi in India. When leaders with authoritarian inclinations gain power in longtime democracies these days, they are frequently compared with Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin. In the United States, Donald J. Trump even invited the comparison himself, complimenting the Russian leader during his presidential election campaign as exemplifying strong leadership. To be...
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Henry Hale 04-05-2017
(APSA) (Co-authored with T. Colton) Abstract: Under what conditions do individuals withdraw support from dominant parties in nondemocratic regimes? Employing an original panel survey, we measure the same individuals’ support for Russia's dominant party first at the peak of its dominance in 2008 and again shortly after it suffered a cascading defection of regime supporters in 2011–12. This allows us uniquely to explore the microfoundations of theories of...
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Henry Hale 03-01-2017
(Presidential Power blog) Some observers argue Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has been determined to concentrate power in his own hands ever since his May 2014 election and has either failed or not seriously tried to eliminate high-level corruption. Yet nearing the end of his third year in office, he clearly lags far behind where his predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, was three years into his presidency. Indeed, Ukraine in 2017 remains a much more...
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Henry Hale 12-30-2016
Will incoming U.S. President Donald Trump usher in a new era of US-Russia cooperation? Many in Russia think so, as do some in the US. But early signs warn the time ahead could become more volatile than before and cooperation could come at a high price. Is it within Trump’s power to change US-Russia relations? Certainly, and he is unlikely to feel constrained by public opinion or Congress. Going against the “conventional wisdom” was the hallmark of his...

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About the author

Professor of Political Science and International Affairs; Co-Director, PONARS Eurasia
George Washington University