Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 337
Pavel Baev 29 Aug 2014
The fast-evolving Ukraine crisis has involved such high stakes and demanded so much attention from Russia’s leadership that it has become the decisive force shaping the country’s future. It has set this oversized incoherent state on a volatile trajectory heading (if in non-linear fashion) toward major disaster. Many Russian political elites understand that confrontation with the West is beyond their country’s economic might and is...
Policy Memo # 336
Olexiy Haran, Petro Burkovsky 26 Aug 2014
(By Olexiy Haran and Petro Burkovsky) Back in 2005, it seemed that Petro Poroshenko, then serving as secretary for the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, would be entirely eliminated from political activity through his rivalry with then-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. However, in the 2014 presidential election, Poroshenko defeated Tymoshenko and all other contenders in a landslide. Evidently, the Euromaidan movement has changed the whole...
Policy Memo # 335
Kelly McMann 25 Aug 2014
In the last decade and a half, the ousters of numerous national leaders and mass street protests in Eurasian and Middle Eastern capitals have taken scholars and policymakers by surprise. Political outcomes are challenging to predict, but by examining events in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 and 2010 and Ukraine in 2004 and 2013, we can see that attention to subnational influences helps. By introducing new leadership or reviving civil society, these events create...
Policy Memo # 334
Mikhail Troitskiy 20 Aug 2014
Despite increased uncertainty about the economic prospects of Russia, India, and China (RIC), these countries continue to attract significant attention as potential sources of concerted counterbalancing postures vis-à-vis the developed world. Ideas about creating an informal grouping—RIC—to coordinate foreign policies have been on the table since the late 1990s.[1] All three prospective members have been positioning themselves as aspiring...
Policy Memo # 333
Tomila Lankina 19 Aug 2014
The December 2011-March 2012 protests in Russia, unprecedented in scale, surprised even the most astute observers of Russian politics. Were these protests a mere blip on the “normally placid surface of Russian political life”?[1] Or are they part of a longer-term trajectory of political maturation for Russian society? Do they reveal a growing capacity of Russia’s citizens to resort to non-institutionalized forms of political...
Policy Memo # 332
Elizabeth Wishnick 18 Aug 2014
After two decades of discussion, China and Russia finally agreed this year to share the $77 billion cost of building the “Power of Siberia” gas pipeline from Russia to China. On May 21, 2014, the two countries signed a $400 billion deal to ship 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to China beginning in 2018. Although the timing of the long-awaited gas pipeline agreement from Russia to China highlighted the changed geopolitical context in the...
Policy Memo # 331
Ivan Kurilla 12 Aug 2014
Amid the political turmoil following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the unrest in eastern Ukraine, the Russian parliament revived a bill criminalizing the “rehabilitation of Nazism” that President Vladimir Putin promptly signed into law. Met with protests by liberal critics and professional historians, the law emerged in the context of a conservative legislation spree by the Russian parliament; the Ukraine crisis, which has encouraged...
Policy Memo # 330
Hilary Appel 12 Aug 2014
When Ukraine’s newly elected president Petro Poroshenko was inaugurated on June 7, he announced his intention to sign an Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union and to pursue EU membership once the EU agreed to it. This last qualifier is particularly relevant, as opportunities for membership are not only constrained by Ukraine’s political and economic development and by Ukrainian- Russian relations but also by important formal and...
Policy Memo # 329
Arkady Moshes 06 Aug 2014
July 20 was the twentieth anniversary of Alexander Lukashenko’s inauguration as president of Belarus. Over these two decades, his country has performed a unique balancing act. On the one hand, Belarus has declared itself Russia’s most loyal ally and asserted its readiness to join any reintegration initiative Moscow proposes, including the ostensibly bilateral “Union State” that was created in 1999. In return, Belarus has obtained...
Policy Memo # 328
Mikhail Alexseev 06 Aug 2014
From his insistence in early 2012 on the preeminence of ethnic Russian culture in Russia to his claim in March 2014 that Moscow annexed Crimea to defend the 1.5 million ethnic Russians living there, President Vladimir Putin’s shift from civic to ethnic nationalism has been all too evident. With guards in elaborate regalia evoking Imperial Russia standing behind him, Putin’s signing of Crimea’s incorporation into Russia signaled a...

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