Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 565
Eiki Berg, Kristel Vits 17 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) De facto states are notorious for their pariah status, constant security deficit, and embryonic institutions, producing the perception that they are states-in-the-making perpetually striving for sheer survival. Their reliance on a patron is considered proof that they would not be viable states and thus are incapable of having independent agency. Without the freedom of choice, these entities lack deliberate will for action, and...
Policy Memo # 564
Joshua Tucker, Denis Stukal, Sergey Sanovich, Richard Bonneau 15 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) The question of how regimes respond to online opposition has become a central topic of politics in the digital age. In previous work, we have identified three main options for regimes: offline response, online restriction of access to content, and online engagement. In order to better understand the latter category—efforts to shape the online conversation—in Russia, we study the political use of Russian language Twitter bots using a...
Policy Memo # 563
Richard Arnold 11 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) Most headlines about the conflict in Eastern Ukraine do not normally mention either the role of the Cossacks or the use of the Cossack image, but both are, in fact, central to developments there. As both Russia and Ukraine have Cossack movements and count the Cossack as a historical archetype, one might be forgiven for thinking they would be a source of unity between the two countries. Both can credibly claim to represent the...
Policy Memo # 562
Erik Herron, Cynthia Buckley, Ralph Clem 11 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) Since the armed conflict in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine began in early 2014, over 10,000 lives have been lost and nearly two million persons displaced, making this one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. The considerable damage wrought to the infrastructure, especially healthcare facilities, of what had been one of Europe’s major urban-industrial areas and home to some 6.6 million people, remains underappreciated...
Policy Memo # 561
Kimberly Marten 04 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) Yevgeny Prigozhin, the corrupt military contractor from St. Petersburg who funds the informal armed organization known as the Wagner Group, expanded his lucrative foreign adventures into Africa in 2018 with Russian state support. His fortunes continued to rise even after scores of his fighters were killed and wounded by a United States air strike in eastern Syria. This memo presents (though in-text links) the most reliable evidence...
Policy Memo # 560
Dmitry Gorenburg 03 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) Since the Ukraine crisis, the dominant Western perspective on Russian foreign policy has come to emphasize its increasingly confrontational, even revanchist, nature. Experts have focused on discontinuities in Russian foreign policy either between the ostensibly more pro-Western Yeltsin presidency and the anti-Western Putin presidency or between the more cooperatively inclined early Putin period (2000-2008) and the more...