Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 32
Stuart Kaufman 01 Sep 1998
Current prospects for resolving the conflict in the Abkhazia region of Georgia are poor. Framework agreements have been reached, but these merely paper over differences on the central issues at stake: the degree of Abkhaz autonomy, and the return of displaced Georgians to Abkhazia. Neither side shows evidence of good faith or restraint from the use of force; public opinion on both sides is even more hard-line. Russia's closing of Abkhazia's...
Policy Memo # 31
Michael McFaul 01 Aug 1998
When presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin meet in Moscow next month, issues such as START II, NATO expansion, trade with Iran and Iraq, and Russia's new draconian law on religion are likely to dominate the agenda. To historians of US-Soviet relations, this agenda should sound familiar as arms control, European security, regional conflicts, and human rights were the main components of most summit agendas between the United States and the Soviet...
Policy Memo # 30
Celeste A. Wallander 01 Aug 1998
In the immediate aftermath of the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Soviet ideas and interests had been thoroughly discredited, and Russia's domestic political, economic, and social system had only begun its fundamental and painful transformation. As a result, the Westernizing policy of a narrow group of liberal elites was quickly and early challenged by national patriots and derzhavniki (a term derived from derzhava, which literally translates as...
Policy Memo # 29
Nikolai Sokov 01 Aug 1998
As NATO contemplates the second wave of enlargement, many wonder what the Russian response might be. The experience of 1996-98 might suggest an optimistic scenario: the first wave was met with harsh words and threats, but the actual response was mild. Russia signed the Founding Act, largely on Western terms, and has entered a cooperative relationship with NATO. For Russia, historical memory reaches back further, and offers other precedents with less...
Policy Memo # 28
A recent Congressional Research Service report states that Russia is a "nuclear superpower" intent on "maintaining rough parity with the United States." In fact, Russians no longer view their state as a superpower and see parity as a relic of the past. The Russian government's recently issued National Security Concept (December 1997) acknowledges a worldview that much of the Russian public has believed for some time, namely that...
Policy Memo # 27
Douglas Blum 01 May 1998
The Caspian Sea embodies one of the crucial tensions of international politics. On one hand, its vast deposits of oil and gas beckon political elites and multinational corporations to compete for resource development projects. On the other hand, the Caspian is a closed ecological system. Without concerted management by all of the littoral states--including Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan--rapid, intensive energy development will...
Policy Memo # 26
Valerie Sperling 01 Jan 1998
Over the course of the last several years, the United States government and private US foundations have allocated funding to support the development of a women's movement in Russia. These funds are intended to foster the development of a civil society and a market economy. Although the funding brings important benefits to the emergent women's movement, it also creates unexpected side effects. This paper analyzes the impact of foreign funding on...
Policy Memo # 25
Sarah E. Mendelson 01 Jan 1998
I recently returned from a research trip to Moscow and wanted to pass on some impressions. While there, I conducted interviews on two different issues: military reform and political party development. My focus in this report is on military reform. My comments draw on interviews with, among others, General Valery Manilov, First Deputy Chief of the General Staff; retired General Lev Rokhlin, chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee; General Alexander...
Policy Memo # 24
Nikolai Sokov 01 Oct 1997
Next January, Norway is planning to launch a research rocket similar to the one that caused a false alarm in the Russian strategic command and control system in 1995. An obvious concern is whether something similar, or worse, could happen with the second launch. This concern is heightened by the suspicion that Russia has a "dead-hand" system (also known as "Doomsday machine"), which could automatically launch missiles on receiving...
Policy Memo # 23
Nikolai Sokov 01 Oct 1997
Although Russia seems to be in perpetual economic crisis and political transition, it is not too early to begin contemplating the impact of economic growth on Russian foreign policy. Even if one would doubt, and not without reason, official and unofficial statistics, there are qualitative signs which point at a real possibility of early economic growth. Specifically, two recent developments warrant attention. Money that was leaving Russia in the last ten...

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