Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 571
Irina Busygina 05 Feb 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which currently includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia, is the first relatively successful attempt to establish strong multilateral institutions for post-Soviet regional integration. Some experts see evidence of this success in the greater scope of supranationalism compared to all previous post-Soviet integration projects and in the multilateral institutions that are based on...
Policy Memo # 570
Volodymyr Kulyk 31 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) The solemn presentation by Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople of the so-called tomos, or a decree of autocephaly, for the Ukrainian Orthodox Church to newly elected Ukrainian primate Metropolitan Epiphanius in Istanbul on January 7, 2019, marked the break of yet another link between Ukraine and Russia. This important ecclesiastical and geopolitical goal was achieved in spite of fierce resistance from Russia’s...
Policy Memo # 569
Tetyana Malyarenko 29 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) How can institutions in Ukraine be strengthened in their effectiveness and legitimacy in order to mitigate conflict escalation and impel peace? How can the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) be effectively reintegrated into Ukraine taking into consideration more than four years of violent conflict and a range of local political, social, and economic transformations, all of which have deeply...
Policy Memo # 568
Volodymyr Dubovyk 25 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) There was widespread anticipation of profound changes in relations between the United States and Ukraine in light of the 2016 U.S. presidential election results. As a candidate, Donald Trump openly praised President Vladimir Putin, questioned the previous U.S. administration’s narratives about the Ukraine-Russia conflict, and even went so far as to suggest that Crimea could be recognized as part of the Russian Federation. Various...
Policy Memo # 567
Stacy Closson 23 Jan 2019
(By Stacy Closson) In November 2018, the Trump administration announced another set of sanctions on Russian individuals and entities for supporting Russia’s economic integration of Crimea and for committing human rights violations. Are these and the prior sanctions effective or have we reached a point of diminishing returns? The general problem with sanctions is that historically they are not particularly effective. Moreover, they are hard to...
Policy Memo # 566
Julie George 18 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) In both Armenia and Georgia, while neither state has achieved democratic consolidation, the role of public debate is especially salient and there is real public power in politics. A key factor in political decisionmaking has been the discussion of national identity and the role of unresolved ethnic and territorial conflicts in the interaction between government and the public. The evolution of the public’s understanding of...
Policy Memo # 565
Eiki Berg, Kristel Vits 17 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) De facto states are notorious for their pariah status, constant security deficit, and embryonic institutions, producing the perception that they are states-in-the-making perpetually striving for sheer survival. Their reliance on a patron is considered proof that they would not be viable states and thus are incapable of having independent agency. Without the freedom of choice, these entities lack deliberate will for action, and...
Policy Memo # 564
Joshua Tucker, Denis Stukal, Sergey Sanovich, Richard Bonneau 15 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) The question of how regimes respond to online opposition has become a central topic of politics in the digital age. In previous work, we have identified three main options for regimes: offline response, online restriction of access to content, and online engagement. In order to better understand the latter category—efforts to shape the online conversation—in Russia, we study the political use of Russian language Twitter bots using a...
Policy Memo # 563
Richard Arnold 11 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) Most headlines about the conflict in Eastern Ukraine do not normally mention either the role of the Cossacks or the use of the Cossack image, but both are, in fact, central to developments there. As both Russia and Ukraine have Cossack movements and count the Cossack as a historical archetype, one might be forgiven for thinking they would be a source of unity between the two countries. Both can credibly claim to represent the...
Policy Memo # 562
Erik Herron, Cynthia Buckley, Ralph Clem 11 Jan 2019
(PONARS Policy Memo) Since the armed conflict in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine began in early 2014, over 10,000 lives have been lost and nearly two million persons displaced, making this one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises. The considerable damage wrought to the infrastructure, especially healthcare facilities, of what had been one of Europe’s major urban-industrial areas and home to some 6.6 million people, remains underappreciated...