Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 92
Pavel Podvig 01 Oct 1999
In recent months the United States and Russia have made an attempt to revive the arms control dialogue. But instead of bringing a solution to the problems that hold up nuclear disarmament, this attempt has done nothing but expose the huge gap between the positions of the two countries on the most contentious issues, missile defense and START II ratification.   The United States began the recent round of consultations with the...
Policy Memo # 91
Assertions by the Russian military that all of their nuclear weapons are secure against theft and that nuclear units within the military are somehow insulated from the problems plaguing the Russian military should not be accepted uncritically. Accordingly, we should not give unwarranted credence to the pronouncements of military figures like Col.-Gen. Igor Valynkin, Chief of the Defense Ministry's 12th Main Directorate, which ...
Tags:Russia, Ball
Policy Memo # 90
David Woodruff 01 Oct 1999
Russia is at a crossroads in dealing with one of its greatest dilemmas: how to set the ruble's exchange rate. The August 1998 financial crisis led to a very sharp and sustained drop in the ruble's exchange rate against the dollar. By the end of the year the ruble had lost 70% of its pre-crisis dollar value. Over the first nine months of 1999 the ruble lost an additional 17% of its dollar value. The exchange rate reached 25 to 1...
Policy Memo # 89
Astrid Tuminez 01 Oct 1999
The most dire predictions about the Russian economy after the August 1998 financial crisis have not come true. Devaluation, for example, has led to import substitution and created growth in some sectors of the economy. Hyperinflation has been avoided, and a strong recovery in oil prices has boosted tax receipts. A Paris Club rescheduling of Soviet-era debt has given Russia some debt relief, while renewed funding from the IMF and...
Policy Memo # 88
Randall Stone 01 Oct 1999
What can we learn about Russia by comparing it to the other post-Communist countries? In particular, what can we learn about the wisdom of applying the brand of economic reform promoted by the International Monetary Fund, and supported by US foreign policy? [...]   Read full text (PDF)
Policy Memo # 87
Sarah E. Mendelson 01 Oct 1999
Little is known--although much is believed--about the impact of democracy assistance on institutional development in Eastern Europe and Eurasia, carried out on a transnational level by Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs) with local political and social activists. A recently completed three year study at Columbia University was designed to address this gap. Its findings--that the impact has been decidedly mixed and that NGO strategies should be...
Policy Memo # 86
Mark Kramer 01 Oct 1999
For the past nine years, the United States has provided large amounts of free and highly subsidized food to Russia. Some of this aid has come in the form of direct governmentto-government assistance; other supplies have been given to private (or nominally private) distributors and processors in Russia. The program has been strongly backed by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), whose chief mission abroad is to promote US farm exports. The program also...
Policy Memo # 85
Yoshiko Herrera 01 Oct 1999
What does the Russian experience with reform teach us about transitions from state to market-based economies? Several scholars have argued that the reform program upon which Russia embarked in late 1991 was itself sound, but the problem was that the reforms were not implemented quickly or comprehensively enough--the medical advice was appropriate, but the patient, alas, was too incompetent or weak-willed to follow the advice of the doctors and take the...
Policy Memo # 84
Alexander Sergounin 01 Oct 1999
With the breakup of the Soviet Union and the decline of Russian military and economic power, Moscow lost much of its former influence in the Asia-Pacific region (APR). Many regional actors feel that Russia currently does not have much to offer to other Asia-Pacific countries. However, this does not mean that Russia has lost interest in the APR, nor agreed to the role of a sidelined player. On the contrary, Russian strategic planners view the Asia-Pacific...
Policy Memo # 83
Mikhail Rykhtik 01 Oct 1999
Concerns about security among the Russian people have peaked at levels not seen since the disintegration of the USSR. Today it is obvious that security issues will become very popular among candidates during election campaigns for the State Duma and the presidency in 1999 and 2000, respectively. Why is this the case? For the first time in contemporary Russian history, ordinary people feel threatened. Politicians have already adopted rhetoric advocating...