Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 24
Next January, Norway is planning to launch a research rocket similar to the one that caused a false alarm in the Russian strategic command and control system in 1995. An obvious concern is whether something similar, or worse, could happen with the second launch. This concern is heightened by the suspicion that Russia has a "dead-hand" system (also known as "Doomsday machine"), which could automatically launch missiles on receiving...
Policy Memo # 23
Although Russia seems to be in perpetual economic crisis and political transition, it is not too early to begin contemplating the impact of economic growth on Russian foreign policy. Even if one would doubt, and not without reason, official and unofficial statistics, there are qualitative signs which point at a real possibility of early economic growth. Specifically, two recent developments warrant attention. Money that was leaving Russia in the last ten...
Policy Memo # 22
The possession of rich reserves of oil and gas on their respective territories destines the Central Asian states neither for healthy market economies and democratic governance nor for the establishment of rentier economies and authoritarian rule. Rather, as we have seen in other parts of the world (such as Venezuela, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia), the economic and political outcomes in Kazakstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan clearly depend upon their...
Policy Memo # 21
With the collapse of the USSR came the dislocation of the Soviet republics--not only from their former political and economic status within the former Soviet Union, but also from their placement within the Western policy and academic spheres of analysis. While some reorganization of policy and academic-related institutions has already taken place to accommodate these changes, the most appropriate analytical category and/or geographical context into which...
Policy Memo # 20
Astrid S. Tuminez 01 Oct 1997
Nationalism is an ideology that specifies who are members of a putative "nation," describes the nation's self-image relative to other groups, and advocates political actions congruent with a national mission. The story of modern European states is, in large part, a story of nationalism. Using nationalist ideology and employing homogenizing institutions such as the army and public schools, France, Italy, Germany, and others managed to bind...
Policy Memo # 19
Michael Rosenbaum 01 Oct 1997
In this brief memo, I will discuss Russian prospects for a successful relationship with the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the factors behind those prospects. By strengthening bilateral and multilateral trade relationships and by enhancing economic interdependency, successful Russian involvement with the WTO could be an important element of Russian stability within the international economic and security system. The WTO is an organization whose...
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Policy Memo # 18
There can be little doubt that open unemployment in the Russian Federation is going to rise dramatically over the next few years. Currently, approximately 10% of the Russian population is out of work--a figure about triple the rate in 1992 at the outset of Yeltsin's market reforms, and comparable to unemployment rates in Western European countries such as France and Germany that are experiencing considerable social unrest about the problem. However,...
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Policy Memo # 17
Stuart Kaufman 01 Oct 1997
Since the end of the Cold War, analysts have been grasping for a way to characterize and understand the new security situation--both in Europe and in the rest of the world. While there is a shared general sense that "the rules have changed," there is little consensus on how much they have changed, or in what ways. My argument here is that the rules have changed far more than is commonly thought. The central fact of contemporary world politics,...
Policy Memo # 16
Andrei Kortunov 01 Oct 1997
Five years into the brave new world ushered in by the collapse of the Communist system and the dramatic reshuffle of global geopolitics there has emerged a novel paradigm of Russian-American relations. This paradigm is no longer predominantly rooted in adversarial competition of the Cold War period, but neither may it be interpreted in terms of well established partnership and genuine cooperation, notwithstanding occasional official declarations to this...
Policy Memo # 15
Генри Xейл 01 Oct 1997
When the words "Russia" and "Near Abroad" emerge in the same sentence, they usually conjure up visions of imperialism and political subversion. In this brief, I argue that Russia has not, in fact, invested much effort into "reintegrating" the former Soviet space. Instead, powerful, market-oriented political forces have consistently led Russia to torpedo nearly every good chance it has had to reunify some of the newly...

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