Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 323
Russian president Vladimir Putin made state building the central priority of his first term. For example, in his first State of the Union address in July 2000 Putin stated that meeting the many challenges facing Russia was “impossible without strengthening the state.” On the eve of the March 2004 presidential election, which Putin is widely expected to win, it is worth eva luating how successful Putin has been in this...
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Policy Memo # 322
As foreseen by many observers, the fall of Baghdad to U.S. forces on April 9, 2003, was just the beginning, not the end of the story. In postwar Iraq, the United States faces continuing resistance in the form of what Gen. John Abizaid (commander, U.S. Central Command) called “classic guerrilla war.” It is not surprising that the postwar stage emerging for the United States and its partners is no less expensive, deadly, and...
Policy Memo # 321
U.S.-Russian relations today can be characterized best as pragmatic. But this pragmatism is a very specific one. The partnership between Russia and the United States is driven by expediency rather than principle or ideological interests, and its primary motivation is to enhance state security in the face of mutual threats: international terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Each side recognizes that the two...
Policy Memo # 320
The sharp disagreements among Western countries over U.S. actions in Iraq are a serious test for Moscow for several reasons. First, although disagreements in the West have occurred before and indeed deepened after the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the Iraq crisis is qualitatively different. NATO members disagreed about the expansion of the alliance and the operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as in...
Policy Memo # 319
Throughout the 1990s, Russian and Western demographers competed over who could produce the gloomiest forecast of Russian population trends for the coming decades. Highly respected demographers argued that the population of the Russian Federation would drop from a high of 148 million in 1992 to 100–105 million by 2025. These forecasts were based on statistics produced by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian...
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Policy Memo # 318
That Russia is a great power appears to be an axiom of world politics, a point of reference accepted even by those who venture advice along the “Forget Moscow” line. Countering reams of political analysis and decades of policy tradition are the words of Joseph Brodsky, who said in February of 1996 in an interview reprinted in Izvestiya: “I think that Russia as a Great Power is over… Russia’s space will...
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Policy Memo # 317
From August 18 to 27, 2003, Russia staged the largest military exercises since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Code-named Vostok-2003, the war games were staged in the training zone of the Northern and Pacific Fleets from the Bering Sea to the Sea of Japan, with sideshows in the Caspian and the Black Seas. Judging from the Russian media reports, anywhere between 58 and 61 warships and auxiliary vessels and 69 to 80 warplanes and...
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Policy Memo # 316
The idea of cooperation between the United States and Russia in the area of missile defense has been popular in Russia since at least the early 1990s. The degree of interest has varied over time, but it has been consistently strong for most of the last decade. Disagreement on missile defenses and the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which has been plaguing the U.S.-Russian relationships, actually has helped strengthen the ...
Policy Memo # 315
Alexander Pikayev 01 Nov 2003
President Vladimir Putin’s decision not to overreact to the December 2001 U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty paved the way to recovering from the painful and acrimonious debates about the fate of the treaty. However, time was needed to heal the wounds that U.S. unilateral decisions had inflicted on U.S.-Russia relations. Only in May 2003 did Russia decide to cooperate with the United States on ...
Policy Memo # 314
Vladimir Orlov 01 Nov 2003
The war waged by the United States and Great Britain against Iraq this spring has played a nasty trick on the global nonproliferation architecture, which can cause real drama when it wants to. On the one hand, the acronym “WMD” is now widely disseminated in the mass media, and the long and cumbersome word “nonproliferation,” thanks to ubiquitous television coverage of Iraq, has become commonplace in every...

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