Policy Memo # 360
Джуди Твиг 01 Nov 2004
The dimensions and contours of Russia's health and demographic situation are relatively well known. Beginning in the 1960s, the Soviet Union and now Russia have experienced dramatic declines in population, fertility, and life expectancy, with parallel increases in mortality and many categories of morbidity. Most of these trends were exacerbated during the turbulent 1990s, with several important indicators still heading in a negative direction despite...
Policy Memo # 359
Alexander Pikayev 01 Nov 2004
On the surface, the war on terror has brought the issue of WMD proliferation to the top of the list of national security concerns for the United States, Russia, and the European Union. The potential of a terrorist exploding a nuclear device somewhere in downtown New York, London, Paris, or Moscow heavily influenced decision makers and led them to immediately elevate nonproliferation in their priority lists and call for stronger international cooperation...
Policy Memo # 358
Vladimir A. Orlov 01 Nov 2004
On November 22, 2004, in accordance with an agreement with the EU-3 (Germany, France, and the United Kingdom), Iran stopped enriching uranium. On November 29, 2004, the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution on the Iranian nuclear program in which, recognizing that it is too early to close the Iranian file as a special case and confirming that a few questions remain, the Agency has not indicated any urgent need to punish Iran by submitting the file...
Policy Memo # 357
The collapse of the Soviet Union sparked fears throughout the world that rogue nations and terrorist organizations would gain access to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). One specific concern has been “WMD brain drain.” Russians with knowledge about nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons could now depart to any country of their choice, including rogue nations seeking to produce WMD. Meanwhile, Russian science fell into a protracted crisis,...
Policy Memo # 356
Aлександр Сушко 01 Nov 2004
The Orange Revolution of November/December 2004, set in motion by a ne wly assertive Ukrainian society, opened a new chapter in Ukrainian history and led to a tangible change in international politics. Europe and the rest of the world were challenged to come to terms with the unexpected demands of a new wave of democratic development, the strongest since the velvet revolutions of the late 1980s in Central and Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet...
Policy Memo # 355
Аркадий Мошес 01 Nov 2004
The results of the constitutional referendum in Belarus that cleared the way for prolonging the rule of the country’s current leader, Alexander Lukashenko, after 2006 when his present term in office will expire, were extremely important in the Russian context. On that day, October 17, 2004, one more challenge to the Russian policy in the Western NIS and to the assumption that Moscow can block undesired actions in the area was revealed. It cannot be...
Policy Memo # 354
Алексей Гарань, Petro Burkovsky 01 Nov 2004
During the second term of President Leonid Kuchma (1999–2004) Ukraine faced a serious decline in civil rights, rule of law, and fair government. Political scandals around journalist Heorhiy Gongadze’s murder and the intimidation of political opposition and independent media resulted in growing social dissatisfaction with the state institutions. At the same time, Ukrainian politics were shaped by the new strong non-leftist opposition, which...
Policy Memo # 353
Владимир Дубовик 01 Nov 2004
Clearly there is a need to analyze in close detail, both in content and essence, the evolution of the U.S. position toward the recent Ukrainian election political crisis. Much has been written on the subject. In the United States, however, most of the attempts to look at the problem lacked comprehensiveness and were not systematic. They were dealing with one or another aspect of the issue, but not considering the whole picture. Moreover, Ukrainian...
Policy Memo # 352
Celeste A. Wallander 01 Nov 2004
Earlier in 2004, I sat with Seryozha, Ivan, Sveta, and Misha* drinking tea. We were in the social room of one of St. Petersburg’s most important unknown achievements: an AIDS Prevention Center attached to a major infectious disease hospital. All four are members of a support group of people living with HIV/AIDS. That is, they are HIVinfected in Russia, and that means each will most likely soon die. Seryozha may be most at risk among the group. He...
Policy Memo # 351
Роберт Орттунг 01 Nov 2004
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has developed a powerful business community and a potent network of transnational organized crime groups. These new actors are having a significant impact on the evolution of the Russian state and its foreign relations. The scope of these firms is enormous, from well-known gigantic energy and metals companies to small-scale businesses involved in exporting logs illegally across Russia's porous borders...
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