Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 191
The Krasnodar region is a wealthy province in southern Russia with a population of over five million. Located on the Black Sea coast, it borders Ukraine, Georgia (the breakaway region of Abkhazia), and Russia’s own North Caucasus. The region has highly productive agriculture, a major military port (Novorossiysk), and a large tourist sector that includes the resort of Sochi, site of the 2014 Winter Olympics. The region was incorporated relatively...
Policy Memo # 190
The gradual withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan, announced by President Barack Obama on June 22, 2011, has made the problem of achieving a political settlement in Afghanistan more urgent than ever before. The announcement came amid ongoing insurgent/terrorist operations and counter-operations and reports of U.S. talks with senior elements of the Taliban. The current dynamic interaction between negotiations among the main Afghan factions and...
Policy Memo # 189
On July 12, 2011, the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi or AKP) claimed victory for a third time in Turkish parliamentary elections since 2002. The AKP received about 49.9 percent of the vote and 326 seats out of the 550 in parliament.1 Tayyip Erdoğan now has the rare distinction of being a Turkish prime minister in his third consecutive term at the helm of a majority government.Elated by such an historical victory, Erdoğan’s...
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Policy Memo # 188
The current situation around the Karabakh conflict leads to pessimism concerning the prospects for a speedy resolution based on mutual compromise. The latest meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents with the mediation of their Russian counterpart, held in Kazan on June 24, 2011, was a failure. The sides retain totally contrasting approaches to resolution of the conflict and are not ready for compromises of any kind. The maximum concessions that each...
Policy Memo # 187
George Khelashvili 01 Sep 2011
A broad, pro-Western consensus over foreign policy goals has existed in Georgia since the late 1990s, but it is not certain whether this will be sustained in the future. The consensus was based on a few widely shared assumptions, including Georgia’s geostrategic importance in the post-Soviet region, the indispensability of the so-called pro-Western course, and an irreconcilably dualistic nature of world politics played out as a geopolitical great...
Policy Memo # 186
Since regaining its independence two decades ago, Georgia, a small weak state, has developed close relations with both regional and great powers and aligned with them in order to compensate for its weaknesses. As Georgia is perceived to be a close regional partner of the United States and was the recipient of roughly $4.5 billion in Western aid over the past three years, recent moves by the Georgian government to establish closer political and economic...
Policy Memo # 185
Let us imagine... at the opening ceremony of the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the United Nations Secretary General announces a new peace deal for the Caucasus, surprising everyone. The details are that the governments of Russia and Georgia agree on a visionary and innovative Georgia-EU Pooled Sovereignty Framework for Abkhazia and South Ossetia, with special recognition of the rights of Russian citizens in the territories. A cross-border free trade zone...
Policy Memo # 184
In the last few years, debates within NATO on the future of the Alliance’s nuclear policy have gone through a number of twists and turns. The adoption of the new Strategic Concept in 2010 was not the end of that process: the NATO Defense and Deterrence Posture Review (DDPR) expected in the spring/summer of 2012 might reveal new surprises—and perhaps new fault lines—within the Alliance. Events started to unfold in 2008 when new German...
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Policy Memo # 183
U.S. President Barack Obama rejected his predecessor’s proposed ballistic missile defense system in Europe and substituted it with a localized theater system. This was generally understood to be a significant gesture in support of the “reset” between the United States and Russia. Moscow met this gesture, however, with continued opposition to any European missile defense system that did not include binding guarantees that the system would...
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Policy Memo # 182
For more than 40 years, negotiators from Moscow and Washington have engaged in countless meetings about strategic arms control. Several bilateral agreements resulted from these talks during the Cold War, and several more have been achieved in the post-Cold War era, most recently in April 2010. Even though the net value of all of these agreements is open to doubt, there was at least some rationale for holding strategic arms control negotiations during the...

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