Central Asia

Policy Memos | Аналитика
Насильственные протесты в Центральной Азии принимают различные формы, равно как и реакция властей на них. В Казахстане насильственные протесты редки и носят экономический характер, в ответ государство зачастую удовлетворяет требования протестующих. В Узбекистане насильственные протесты также редки и зачастую носят исламскую окраску, а ответной реакцией государства являются репрессии. В Киргизстане и Таджикистане насильственные протесты случаются часто и...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
In the weeks and months after the January 25 Revolution in Egypt, there was hope among commentators and opposition figures that some post-Soviet regimes might be equally susceptible to uprisings and collapse. Such hopes were not entirely fanciful. Like the events of the Arab Spring, the color revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan in the early 2000s caught observers off guard. And making confident predictions about the durability of authoritarian...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
In the past year, China’s Central Asia policy has weathered several external and internal shocks, which have proven to be interconnected in unexpected ways. Although some differences emerged between China and Central Asian states over Russia’s support for the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the financial crisis provided an opportunity for China to deepen its economic engagement in the region, particularly in the energy sector....
Policy Memos | Аналитика
The official Tajik narrative on cross-border relations with Afghanistan focuses on security concerns, namely the spread of drug trafficking and Islamic militancy. Presenting these threats as entirely external in origin is useful for Tajik elites as it attracts the attention of the international community. However, these issues can in large part be explained by elements of Tajik society itself, including interregional balances, rivalries between influence...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
The main obstacle to developing an appropriate security architecture for post-Soviet Eurasia are the number of perceptual and conceptual gaps that exist among the actors involved. Major states and regional organizations have had inconsistent and conflicting foreign policy stances. Formerly peripheral states seek patrons but also influence in shaping their own security environment. New approaches are needed to establish a security architecture for the...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
The angry and hopeless demonstrations in the streets of Tehran last June did not resemble the enthusiastic “happenings” on Kyiv’s maidan (main square) in November 2004. However, successive eruptions of public protest after elections perceived to be “stolen” occur too often to avoid attempts at generalization. It is clear that these events, which have acquired the common name of color revolutions, should not be treated as...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
The victory of Viktor Yanukovych in the second round of Ukraine’s 2010 presidential election has been widely portrayed as a rebuke of the 2004 Orange Revolution and the pro-Western alignment it ushered in. Even before the election, however, the effects of the Eurasian color revolutions, celebrated with such euphoria in some Western foreign policy circles in the mid-2000s, had far-reaching and unintended consequences which have proven to be...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Kyrgyzstan’s February 2009 decision to close the U.S. military base at the country’s Manas airfield caught many by surprise. The decision was not preceded by domestic debate about a possible closure, nor had such an issue been raised bilaterally in formal Kyrgyz-U.S. discussions. Moreover, the 2006 renegotiation of the original 2002 agreement had seemed to put an end to any new challenges to the U.S.-leased base. [...] More (PDF)

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