How Changing Ukrainian Society Impacts the Chances for Peace | Charap, Giuliano, Alexseev (Part 1 of 2)
PONARS Eurasia 06 Mar 2017
Last month a major battle broke out between Russian-backed insurgents and Ukrainian forces in the town of Avdiivka in Ukraine. Alongside the return of such violence in the Donbas, Ukrainian society has changed greatly since 2014 in ways that impact the chances for conflict resolution. In this two-part commentary series, PONARS Eurasia members argue for the importance of properly understanding regional divergences in identity, public political attitudes...
Samuel Charap 07 Feb 2017
(IISS) The Ukraine crisis and the downturn in Russia–West relations that came in its wake have compelled Russia to turn decisively towards China. Deprived of other options, Moscow has found itself in the position of demandeur vis- à-vis Beijing, creating an increasingly imbalanced bilateral relationship. Nonetheless, Russia and China have avoided any turbulence that might have resulted from this asymmetry through mutual accommodation and compromise...
Samuel Charap 25 Jan 2017
(PS) (Co-authored by Timothy J. Colton) Donald Trump has officially been inaugurated as US president, but questions about Russia’s interference in the election will not go away. Yet one key question is often lost in the fray: Why did Russian President Vladimir Putin do it? Of course, it is not difficult to guess why Putin preferred Trump to his opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. But there is a difference between hoping for an...
Samuel Charap 24 Jan 2017
(Co-authored by Samuel Charap and Timothy J. Colton) Disorder erupted in Ukraine in 2014, involving the overthrow of a sitting government, the Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula, and a violent insurrection, supported by Moscow, in the east of the country. This book argues that the crisis has yielded a ruinous outcome, in which all the parties are worse off and international security has deteriorated. This negative-sum scenario resulted...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Samuel Charap 19 Oct 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) Russia has used its military beyond its borders with unprecedented frequency in the period since the invasion of Crimea in February 2014. Depending on how one counts, there are up to five cases of the use of force that followed Crimea: - Support for the insurgency in the Donbas from March 2014. - Direct military intervention that culminated in Ilovaisk in late August 2014. - Intervention that ended with...
Charap: As Secretary of State, Clinton's comments were seized upon by Russia; she became a convenient scapegoat
PONARS Eurasia 28 Jul 2016
(Washington Post) Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly accused Hillary Clinton when she was secretary of state of interfering in Moscow’s affairs — and if Russian security was behind last week’s release through WikiLeaks of the hacked Democratic National Committee emails, it would look a lot like Kremlin payback. Even if the breach was carried out by a mid-level intelligence official acting on his own initiative, hoping to please...
PONARS Eurasia 05 Jul 2016
(Washington Post) The U.S.-Russia relationship is too big to fail, but it’s failing. The Obama administration came into office with a big idea about this relationship: that these two world powers must work together on areas of mutual interest even if they still worked against each other where their interests diverged. The concept was sound, but as relations have deteriorated and Russia has taken a more antagonistic stance, the United States...
Charap: Normalizing relations with Russia has been a personal foreign policy priority of Japan's prime minster
PONARS Eurasia 26 May 2016
(FT) For 17 years, until 2014, the G7 was the G8. In a goodwill gesture to post-communist Russia, the Group of Seven industrialised democracies invited Russian president Boris Yeltsin to attend their summit for the first time in 1997. But Russia’s membership was suspended after its annexation of Crimea following the pro-western revolution in Ukraine. [...] “Normalizing relations with Russia has been and remains a personal...
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