Hale

PONARS Eurasia 04 May 2017
PONARS Eurasia held a two-day workshop on April 28-29 on the theme of "Rethinking Russian Media Strategy and Influence." Below are the panels and abstracts from April 29. Click here for the panels and abstracts on April 28 (Day 1). Panel 5. New Approaches in Studying Social Media Chair: Tomila Lankina, London School of Economics and Political Science Sarah Oates, University of Maryland Meme Tracking: A Tool for Detecting and Deterring...
Henry Hale 04 May 2017
(Seminar) Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey. Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines. Narendra Modi in India. When leaders with authoritarian inclinations gain power in longtime democracies these days, they are frequently compared with Russia’s President Vladimir V. Putin. In the United States, Donald J. Trump even invited the comparison himself, complimenting the Russian leader during his presidential election campaign as exemplifying strong...
Tags: Hale, Russia
PONARS Eurasia 18 Apr 2017
(Daedalus) The current issue of Dædalus represents a collaborative effort to think afresh about Russia’s political future. The long and eventful reign of Vladimir Putin, commenced in 2000, is well into its second half. The time horizon we work with in our discussion is roughly ten to fifteen years out. By then, Putin, if alive, will be in his mid-seventies (he turns sixty-five in October 2017) and will either be out of power or in his endgame as...
Henry Hale 05 Apr 2017
(APSA) (Co-authored with T. Colton) Abstract: Under what conditions do individuals withdraw support from dominant parties in nondemocratic regimes? Employing an original panel survey, we measure the same individuals’ support for Russia's dominant party first at the peak of its dominance in 2008 and again shortly after it suffered a cascading defection of regime supporters in 2011–12. This allows us uniquely to explore the microfoundations...
Tags: Hale, Colton, Russia
Henry Hale 01 Mar 2017
(Presidential Power blog) Some observers argue Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has been determined to concentrate power in his own hands ever since his May 2014 election and has either failed or not seriously tried to eliminate high-level corruption. Yet nearing the end of his third year in office, he clearly lags far behind where his predecessor, Viktor Yanukovych, was three years into his presidency. Indeed, Ukraine in 2017 remains a much more...
Tags: Hale, Ukraine
Henry Hale 30 Dec 2016
Will incoming U.S. President Donald Trump usher in a new era of US-Russia cooperation? Many in Russia think so, as do some in the US. But early signs warn the time ahead could become more volatile than before and cooperation could come at a high price. Is it within Trump’s power to change US-Russia relations? Certainly, and he is unlikely to feel constrained by public opinion or Congress. Going against the “conventional wisdom” was the...
PONARS Eurasia 14 Dec 2016
(CBC) Mitch McConnell should have known. And, well, there's a chance he did — possibly even months before the presidential election. As the Senate majority leader announced Monday that a bipartisan panel would investigate Russia's suspected meddling in the U.S. election, the timing of his principled call for a review seemed a bit rich to some observers. [...] Meanwhile, Trump continues to publicly discredit the intelligence...
Tags: Hale
PONARS Eurasia 13 Dec 2016
(VOA) President-elect Donald Trump tweeted Monday that he would announce his choice for secretary of state this morning. Several news U.S. organizations – most citing anonymous sources within Trump's transition team – report Trump plans to name ExxonMobil chairman and chief executive officer Rex Tillerson. The notion that Tillerson will get the nod was further bolstered when Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and the 2012...

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