Moshes

Arkady Moshes 15 May 2017
(FIIA) An explicit “deal” between the West and Russia on Ukraine is not possible. Europe would like to reach a more pragmatic modus vivendi with Moscow, but a sustainable freezing of the conflict in Donbas remains a critical minimum precondition.  The military phase of the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas started three years ago, in May 2014. Throughout this period, observers have discussed whether or not the West would...
Arkady Moshes 28 Feb 2017
(GEURASIA) Before the Ukraine crisis, the ruling regime in Minsk enjoyed a rather comfortable foreign policy position vis-à-vis Moscow. On the one hand, Belarus declared itself Russia’s closest ally, a bulwark against NATO and a committed participant of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). As a member of the bilateral Russian-Belarusian Union State – a unique quasi-confederate format of post-Soviet reintegration...
Arkady Moshes 09 Feb 2017
(FIIA) (Co-author: R. Nizhnikau) On February 15, 2016, the EU decided not to prolong the sanctions it had imposed five years earlier on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in response to brutal repressions against the Belarusian political opposition. The sanctions were lifted as a reward granted to Minsk in return for the release of remaining political prisoners, for the less oppressive presidential campaign of 2015 and– perhaps above all – for...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 30 Jan 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) The Ukraine crisis became a major driver of the centrifugal relationship between Russia and the European Union, but it was not the starting point. The relationship had been essentially stagnant since the EU eastern enlargement at the beginning of the 2000s and Ukraine’s Orange revolution of 2004. Significant trade volumes could not compensate for the increasing geopolitical rivalry between Brussels and Moscow. The EU has...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 14 Sep 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) In February 2016, the Council of the European Union lifted sanctions on Belarus. It had imposed them in 2010 in response to the regime’s brutal oppression of the opposition after that year’s presidential election. Since very little domestic political liberalization has occurred in Belarus since then, the decision must have been driven by geopolitical motivations. Most likely, the EU sought to reward Minsk for its...
Tags: Moshes, Russia, Belarus, EU
Arkady Moshes 12 Sep 2016
It would be an exaggeration to say that Minsk did everything it could to please the West during the parliamentary elections that took place in Belarus this past Sunday. But it has certainly done enough to make sure that the ongoing rapprochement between the two will not be jeopardized. During the campaign, the opposition was treated far more liberally than previously. Post-election protest efforts were not large and passed uneventfully with a strong...
Arkady Moshes 24 Aug 2016
(FIIA) During the ongoing conflict in Donbas, Ukraine – its multiple social ills, regional and linguistic differences notwithstanding – demonstrated unprecedented national mobilization. But a modern and transparent state is still lacking. The quarter of a century that has passed since Ukraine declared its independence on August 24, 1991 has been a painful and dramatic period in the country’s history, full of missed...
Arkady Moshes 24 Aug 2016
(FIIA) The European Union has lost a significant part of its soft power in Russia. It is no longer viewed as a success story worth being a part of, or developing a partnership with. A call for strategic cooperation between Europe and Russia, which implies normalization of relations and the lifting of EU sanctions against Russia as the first step, can often be heard across European capitals and Brussels. Business representatives count on reviving...
Tags: Moshes, Russia, EU

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