Moshes

Arkady Moshes 16 May 2018
(FIIA) Russia’s re-elected president speaks about the need to achieve a “breakthrough”. But his only realistic goal is perpetuation of the regime. Those who watched Vladimir Putin’s inauguration ceremony on May 7 must have paid attention to the TV cameras’ preoccupation with two people on the front row: Dmitry Medvedev, the longest-serving Prime Minister of post-Soviet Russia, and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. The first figure...
Tags: Moshes, Russia
Arkady Moshes 13 Mar 2018
(FIIA) The “Revolution of Dignity” led to a considerable decrease in Russian economic, political and soft power influence over Ukraine. Yet the process did not turn out to be self-sustainable. Insufficient reforms and the predatory behaviour of old elites negatively affect the prospects for change in general and the emergence of a new model in Russian-Ukrainian relations in particular. Russia may exploit opaque schemes to gradually regain some...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 06 Feb 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) One year into Donald Trump’s presidency is a good time to scrutinize the views held by the mainstream parts of the Russian foreign policy establishment. In a nutshell, they are highly skeptical about the immediate future of relations between Russia and the West, optimistic about Russia’s turn to Asia despite the impediments, and are not satisfied about the Russia-centered reintegration of the post-Soviet space. Displaying a...
Arkady Moshes 23 Jan 2018
(FIIA) Voters will give Vladimir Putin the mandate to continue great power politics. This does not augur well for any deconfliction between Russia and the West. The outcome of the Russian presidential race is a foregone conclusion. Vladimir Putin will extend his stay in power for another term. But the details of the process, and the differences from past elections are nevertheless worth following as they reveal the inner logic of Russia’s current...
Arkady Moshes 15 May 2017
(FIIA) An explicit “deal” between the West and Russia on Ukraine is not possible. Europe would like to reach a more pragmatic modus vivendi with Moscow, but a sustainable freezing of the conflict in Donbas remains a critical minimum precondition.  The military phase of the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas started three years ago, in May 2014. Throughout this period, observers have discussed whether or not the West would...
Arkady Moshes 28 Feb 2017
(GEURASIA) Before the Ukraine crisis, the ruling regime in Minsk enjoyed a rather comfortable foreign policy position vis-à-vis Moscow. On the one hand, Belarus declared itself Russia’s closest ally, a bulwark against NATO and a committed participant of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). As a member of the bilateral Russian-Belarusian Union State – a unique quasi-confederate format of post-Soviet reintegration...
Arkady Moshes 09 Feb 2017
(FIIA) (Co-author: R. Nizhnikau) On February 15, 2016, the EU decided not to prolong the sanctions it had imposed five years earlier on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in response to brutal repressions against the Belarusian political opposition. The sanctions were lifted as a reward granted to Minsk in return for the release of remaining political prisoners, for the less oppressive presidential campaign of 2015 and– perhaps above all – for...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 30 Jan 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) The Ukraine crisis became a major driver of the centrifugal relationship between Russia and the European Union, but it was not the starting point. The relationship had been essentially stagnant since the EU eastern enlargement at the beginning of the 2000s and Ukraine’s Orange revolution of 2004. Significant trade volumes could not compensate for the increasing geopolitical rivalry between Brussels and Moscow. The EU has...

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