Moshes

Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 06 Feb 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) One year into Donald Trump’s presidency is a good time to scrutinize the views held by the mainstream parts of the Russian foreign policy establishment. In a nutshell, they are highly skeptical about the immediate future of relations between Russia and the West, optimistic about Russia’s turn to Asia despite the impediments, and are not satisfied about the Russia-centered reintegration of the post-Soviet space. Displaying a...
Arkady Moshes 23 Jan 2018
(FIIA) Voters will give Vladimir Putin the mandate to continue great power politics. This does not augur well for any deconfliction between Russia and the West. The outcome of the Russian presidential race is a foregone conclusion. Vladimir Putin will extend his stay in power for another term. But the details of the process, and the differences from past elections are nevertheless worth following as they reveal the inner logic of Russia’s current...
Arkady Moshes 15 May 2017
(FIIA) An explicit “deal” between the West and Russia on Ukraine is not possible. Europe would like to reach a more pragmatic modus vivendi with Moscow, but a sustainable freezing of the conflict in Donbas remains a critical minimum precondition.  The military phase of the conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas started three years ago, in May 2014. Throughout this period, observers have discussed whether or not the West would...
Arkady Moshes 28 Feb 2017
(GEURASIA) Before the Ukraine crisis, the ruling regime in Minsk enjoyed a rather comfortable foreign policy position vis-à-vis Moscow. On the one hand, Belarus declared itself Russia’s closest ally, a bulwark against NATO and a committed participant of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). As a member of the bilateral Russian-Belarusian Union State – a unique quasi-confederate format of post-Soviet reintegration...
Arkady Moshes 09 Feb 2017
(FIIA) (Co-author: R. Nizhnikau) On February 15, 2016, the EU decided not to prolong the sanctions it had imposed five years earlier on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko in response to brutal repressions against the Belarusian political opposition. The sanctions were lifted as a reward granted to Minsk in return for the release of remaining political prisoners, for the less oppressive presidential campaign of 2015 and– perhaps above all – for...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 30 Jan 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) The Ukraine crisis became a major driver of the centrifugal relationship between Russia and the European Union, but it was not the starting point. The relationship had been essentially stagnant since the EU eastern enlargement at the beginning of the 2000s and Ukraine’s Orange revolution of 2004. Significant trade volumes could not compensate for the increasing geopolitical rivalry between Brussels and Moscow. The EU has...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Arkady Moshes 14 Sep 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) In February 2016, the Council of the European Union lifted sanctions on Belarus. It had imposed them in 2010 in response to the regime’s brutal oppression of the opposition after that year’s presidential election. Since very little domestic political liberalization has occurred in Belarus since then, the decision must have been driven by geopolitical motivations. Most likely, the EU sought to reward Minsk for its...
Arkady Moshes 12 Sep 2016
It would be an exaggeration to say that Minsk did everything it could to please the West during the parliamentary elections that took place in Belarus this past Sunday. But it has certainly done enough to make sure that the ongoing rapprochement between the two will not be jeopardized. During the campaign, the opposition was treated far more liberally than previously. Post-election protest efforts were not large and passed uneventfully with a strong...

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