Posts by Pavel Baev

Pavel Baev 10-21-2020
(Eurasia Daily Monitor) The virtual meeting of the Russian Security Council last Friday (October 16) started with a surprise meant to signify a major foreign policy initiative. Namely, President Vladimir Putin instructed Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to present to the leadership of the United States with the suggestion to extend the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) for one year without any conditions or revisions (Kremlin.ru, October 16). The...
Pavel Baev 10-07-2020
(Eurasia Daily Monitor) The sharp rise of COVID-19 infections in Russia in the last couple of weeks was predictable given the relatively high “plateau” of new cases over the summer after the sharp peak in early May. Yet the escalation of the pandemic has apparently caught the authorities by surprise as the government focused on Moscow. Cases of the novel coronavirus in the Russian capital grew to a maximum of about 6,000 infection a day in May, before...
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Pavel Baev 09-30-2020
(Brookings) full-blown war erupted in the South Caucasus last Sunday, September 27, and as the two belligerents — Armenia and Azerbaijan — mobilize their forces under martial law, no international authority is trying in earnest to stop the hostilities. The conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region ignited 30 years ago as the Soviet Union was collapsing and has never effectively “frozen.” The cease-fire Russia negotiated in May 1994 was not backed...
Pavel Baev 09-22-2020
(Eurasia Daily Monitor) With its latest double breach of norms of international behavior—poisoning the opposition leader Alexei Navalny and embracing the discredited Belarusian autocrat, President Alyaksandr Lukashenka—Russia has managed to unite Europe in outrage. Last week (September 17), the European Parliament approved, by a large majority, a harsh resolution not only demanding a strong response to the Navalny case but also calling for a new strategy...
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Pavel Baev 09-15-2020
(Eurasia Daily Monitor) Five weeks of peaceful mass protests in Belarus after the falsified elections on August 9, have profoundly changed this formerly rather stable and conservative country, impressed its European neighbors, and set a sharp challenge for Russia, which is tied to this partner in a peculiar “Union State” arrangement undergirded by strong historical, cultural and economic ties. Belarus’s embattled head of state, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, has...
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Pavel Baev 09-09-2020
(Euasia Daily Monitor) Russia traditionally returns to normal work, after a summer break, on September 1. This year, however, although schools reopened as usual, broader public and political life persisted on its earlier course of disarray and downturn. In his televised address to schoolchildren, President Vladimir Putin spoke at length about the memory of the great Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany but only obliquely referred to the ongoing COVID-19...
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Pavel Baev 08-11-2020
Лукашенко накануне выборов довел до опасного уровня свою игру в «братскую дружбу» с Россией на двух фронтах. Ожидалось, что президентские выборы в Беларуси будут жестко контролируемым событием, которое 9-го августа увенчается убедительной победой действующего президента Александра Лукашенко, удерживающего власть с июля 1994 года. Но план нарушила впечатляюще мощная кампания оппозиции. И 29 июля в политической динамике страны произошел шокирующий и даже...
Pavel Baev 08-11-2020
(EDM) The Russian Security Council held a virtual session last Friday (August 7), and President Vladimir Putin opened with the proposal to discuss the “international situation in general”; if his subordinates had any other business, it could be discussed “in a routine manner” (Kremlin.ru, August 7). This setting of the agenda thus projected the impression that Russia’s ruler sees no serious problems in foreign or domestic affairs and merely wanted his...
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Pavel Baev 08-04-2020
(EDM) The presidential elections in Belarus were expected to be a tightly controlled affair, resulting in a convincing victory, on August 9, for the incumbent, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, who has firmly retained power since July 1994. The plan, however, unraveled as a result of the remarkably strong campaign conducted by the opposition. And on July 29, the political dynamics took a shocking and even bizarre turn when 33 Russian mercenaries of the private...
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Pavel Baev 07-21-2020
(EDM) Every country in the world is experiencing its own particular version of the ongoing global health-and-economic crisis, and Russia faces a particularly complex one, aggravated by outstanding and escalating mismanagement. President Vladimir Putin insists that the COVID-19 pandemic is under control and that the economic contraction is being mitigated; but in fact, neither has been contained, while the Kremlin leader’s self-serving political agenda is...

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About the author

Research Professor
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)