Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 265
Arkady Moshes 01 Oct 2002
It is obvious that the epoch of Leonid Kuchma in Ukraine is coming to its end. When and how this epoch will end and what, let alone who, will follow Kuchma is still extremely uncertain. Kuchma’s approval rating is in single digits and his reputation is damaged by scandals ranging from arms trade deals with Iraq to the murder of journalist Georgii Honhadze to anti-Semitic statements. Even with the possible intervention of the...
Policy Memo # 264
Kimberly Marten 01 Oct 2002
The United States faces a dilemma in Kyrgyzstan because the two countries’ short-term and long-term security interests may be in conflict with each other. For the next few years, the United States would like to maintain its military presence in Kyrgyzstan, especially its ability to use the Ganci air base at Manas airport outside the capital of Bishkek. To do this requires giving financial support to the Kyrgyz government led by...
Policy Memo # 263
Irina Kobrinskaya 01 Oct 2002
Analysts of Russian policy often highlight the apparent lack of congruity between Putin’s domestic and foreign policy motivations. Russian domestic political development is seen as increasingly authoritarian as Putin and his allies have sought to construct and then consolidate vertical presidential power in Russia. The power vertical assumes the unchallenged dominance of the Kremlin in managing domestic and foreign policy in...
Policy Memo # 262
Alla Kassianova 01 Oct 2002
In a summer 2002 interview, Russian foreign minister Igor Ivanov outlined some of the recent achievements of Russian diplomacy and suggested that well–thought out foreign policy would yield the goals Russia has set. According to Ivanov, "If you look at the activeness of the last few months, you see, after all, not some sort of spontaneous measures, but the implementation of the principles that were ratified by the president...
Policy Memo # 261
Olexiy Haran 01 Oct 2002
The present Ukrainian electoral system is based on a mixed majoritarian/proportional system, with 225 of the Rada’s deputies elected in single-mandate districts (SMD) and 225 elected by party lists. In the March 2002 parliamentary election, opposition forcesreceived almost 60 percent of the party list votes while the two pro-Presidential parties who cleared the 4 percent threshold received only 18 percent of the votes. The public...
Policy Memo # 260
Jeffrey Checkel 01 Oct 2002
Recent months have witnessed a heated debate between the United States and its European allies over basic foreign policy strategies. Played out largely in discussions over the war on terror, headline stories have pictured a unilateralist United States versus an institutionalist Europe. The United States relies on its own (or allied) resources to obtain foreign policy objectives; international institutions like the United Nations (UN)...
Policy Memo # 259
Valerie Sperling 01 Oct 2002
After the Soviet Communist Party's regime was replaced by a multiparty system in the 1990s, voting in Russia became a subject of intense interest to political scientists. Voters in Russia, as elsewhere, now make choices based on many issues, such as perceptions about the economy. Demographic characteristics, such as ethnicity and income, highly predictive in the United States, and age, particularly salient in Russia, also play a...
Policy Memo # 258
Regina Smyth 01 Oct 2002
In 1993, 1995, and 1999, analysts and politicians in both Russia and the United States made bold predictions about the outcomes of each national parliamentary election. Their predictions, based largely on the analyses of party organizations, were consistently off the mark, both in terms of outcomes and the impact of those outcomes on the political process. Volatility in both the parties that actually made it onto the ballot and in...
Policy Memo # 257
Dmitri Glinski 01 Oct 2002
A decade ago, the politically entrepreneurial vanguard of Moscow's ruling elite--the so-called reformers--came to power under a slogan that was attractive by virture of its simplicity: transforming Russia into a "normal country." "Normal" meant a Western-oriented market democracy with higher living standards than existed under the Soviet Union. Since then, Russia has survived multiple crises and the transition to another presidency...
Policy Memo # 256
Theodore Gerber, Sarah E. Mendelson 01 Oct 2002
In previous PONARS memos (see especially no. 221, also nos. 243 and 244), we presented October 2001 survey results showing weak support among Russians for human rights, particularly for civil liberties and the application of rights norms in concrete situations. Earlier this year we conducted another round of surveys and also ran nine focus groups in Russia in order to replicate earlier results and explore in more detail the ...