Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 420
Douglas Blum 01 Dec 2006
After a brief burst of optimism following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia fell into a funk. The economy failed to take off, and by the end of the decade it was no better – and in some ways even worse – than it had been at its start. In foreign affairs, relations between Russia and the West became increasingly strained due to a series of perceived diplomatic setbacks and snubs (including resistance to Russian membership in the World...
Tags:Russia, Blum
Policy Memo # 419
Mikhail Alexseev 01 Dec 2006
One of the biggest movie hits of the Soviet era, The Irony of Fate, or Enjoy Your Bath (1975), still shown around New Year’s Day on Russia’s major television channels to high ratings, exploited the profound social implications of a 30-year boom in mass housing construction under former Soviet leaders Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev. In the movie, the protagonist, who had moved into a newly-built high-rise apartment in Moscow, drinks one...
Policy Memo # 418
Nikolai Sokov 01 Dec 2006
Negotiations on a new strategic arms control treaty, proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in July 2006, are likely to be a challenging but fascinating exercise. The new treaty, which for convenience we may dub START+, is supposed to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I), set to expire in December 2009. If successful, these negotiations could provide a stable long-term framework for the U.S.-Russian strategic nuclear...
Policy Memo # 417
Pavel Podvig 01 Dec 2006
Prompt Global Strike is a concept the U.S. military has been developing since the start of the decade. Its goal is to give the U.S. military the capability to attack targets anywhere in the world at very short notice. The weapons most able to support a mission like this are intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and sea-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), capable of reaching almost any target in thirty minutes or less. As the first step toward...
Policy Memo # 416
Mark Kramer 01 Dec 2006
A year ago, the prospects for stability in the North Caucasus appeared dim at best. Violent clashes, bombings, and terrorist attacks in Chechnya remained common and continued to produce bloodshed, misery, and destruction. Even more troubling was the accelerated spread of extremist violence and sociopolitical instability from Chechnya into neighboring Dagestan and Ingushetia, where bombings, assassinations, and other terrorist attacks became a daily...
Policy Memo # 415
Pavel Baev 01 Dec 2006
Russia launched its own war against terror in September 1999 when the country, shocked by twin bomb attacks in Moscow, made a contract with newly appointed prime minister Vladimir Putin. He promised to exterminate the threat and accepted responsibility for a war not of his making. This was certainly a risk on Putin’s part, and the probability that uncontrollable generals would mishandle the campaign was uncomfortably high. Putin gambled, however,...
Policy Memo # 414
Brian Taylor 01 Dec 2006
The “rise of the siloviki” has become a standard framework for analyzing Russian politics under President Vladimir Putin. According to this view, the main difference between Putin’s rule and that of former president Boris Yeltsin is the triumph of guns (the siloviki) over money (the oligarchs). This approach has a lot to recommend it, but it also raises several important questions. One is the ambiguity embedded in the term siloviki...
Policy Memo # 413
Nikolay Petrov 01 Dec 2006
In the seven years that President Vladimir Putin has been in power, Russia seems to have regressed politically almost to where it was a decade and a half ago. This is not to say that the Kremlin has been actively fighting against democracy; its decline is a side effect of the strengthening of the state. The rise of democracy in the late 1980s and early 1990s was the result of a weakening of the state, not a strengthening of society. With the state...
Policy Memo # 412
Olexiy Haran 01 Dec 2006
Since the late 1980s, crises in Ukrainian politics have been resolved through political compromise. Ukraine’s peaceful transition to independence, the 1994 electoral transition of power (the first in the post-Soviet space), and the adoption of the 1996 constitution all came about through elite compromises. Even during former Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma’s second term, marked by a drift toward authoritarianism, Ukraine’s political...
Policy Memo # 411
Georgi Derluguian 01 Dec 2006
Forget about transitions. In Russia, the transition from Communism was over in late 1993, after former president Boris Yeltsin prevailed in battles against his rivals in parliament, in the provinces, and in various economic sectors. It remained to be seen, however, how the post-collapse regime would consolidate itself and how far it could go. We now know most of the answers; the question is their future projections. [...] Read full text (PDF)