Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 108
Alexander Pikayev 01 Feb 2000
Since August 1999, the US-Russian START III/ABM Treaty talks have not shown evidence of any progress. At these talks, Moscow consistently refused discussing modification of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty to permit US deployment of a limited National Missile Defense (NMD) aimed at protecting US national territory from missile attacks by potential nuclear proliferators. In turn, the United States refuses to commence formal START III negotiations...
Policy Memo # 107
Pavel Baev 01 Feb 2000
Six full weeks after the December 1999 parliamentary elections, Russian troops managed to raise their flags over the familiar ruins of the presidential palace in Grozny. Victory has been proclaimed yet again, but the discrepancy between the slow-moving and highly uncertain military operation and the fast-rolling and "satisfaction guaranteed" political campaigning has also become apparent. During autumn, politics and war had worked in perfect...
Policy Memo # 106
Regina Smyth 01 Feb 2000
"These elections are not about issues, they are about power." During the Russian parliamentary elections in December 1999 any number of people could claim this statement. This characterization--along with the perception that this election included the dirtiest campaigns to date--was agreed upon by Westerners and Russians, participants and observers, central and regional officials, and independent and party-affiliated candidates. These shared...
Policy Memo # 105
Astrid Tuminez 01 Jan 2000
In the aftermath of Russia's August 1998 financial crisis, many observers hoped that genuine reform and restructuring would occur in the Russian banking sector. Unfortunately, almost a year and a half after the crisis, the sector hobbles along with only a few half-steps taken towards effective restructuring. Although some banks have been closed, consolidation into a few strong and competitive banking institutions has not occurred. While many analysts...
Policy Memo # 104
Georgi Derluguian 01 Jan 2000
Suddenly, something in the mysterious and unpredictable realm of Russia looks not merely predictable but destined to happen. It is almost embarrassing to analysts, who are used to the bubbling contingency and the byzantine, robust action of Yeltsin's decade. Mr. Putin is considered unstoppable in his march to the Russian presidency by virtually everyone, significantly including his opponents. It is indeed the ultimate degree of power when challenges...
Policy Memo # 103
Mark Kramer 01 Jan 2000
A good deal of confusion has arisen in the West about Russia's latest "Concept of National Security," which formally took effect on January 10 and was published in the weekly military supplement Nezavisimoe voennoe obozrenie on January 14. Shortly after the Concept was published, some Western commentators described it as a "bold initiative" by the new Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who supposedly "is seeking to define a...
Policy Memo # 102
Celeste A. Wallander 01 Jan 2000
Although signing a decree granting the new National Security Concept the status of law in January 2000 was one of acting president Vladimir V. Putin's first official decisions in the area of security policy, this development should not be misunderstood as tied solely to Putin's views or personal leadership. The new national security policy has been developing for at least a year, and is the result of debate and consensus across a substantial...
Policy Memo # 101
Nikolai Sokov 01 Jan 2000
As Russia prepares for early presidential elections, the foreign policy strategy of the most likely winner--acting President Vladimir Putin--is the subject of much speculation. Will he be pro- or anti-Western? Will Chechnya define his course or is it just a bump on the road? There are precious few solid indications of what his policy might be, but this need not impede prediction, especially when prediction is needed. Considering the upcoming US...
Policy Memo # 100
Since Russia launched its "anti-terrorist campaign" in Chechnya in the fall of 1999, the West has stepped up criticism of Moscow's actions in the North Caucasus. While recognizing the lack of credible information from the conflict zone, the United States and its European allies continue to express growing concern about the level of civilian casualties and the number of refugees in Chechnya and neighboring regions. In this context, the OSCE...
Policy Memo # 99
Mark Kramer 01 Dec 1999
A number of recent developments have provoked unease in both Russia and the West about the state of Russia's civil-military relations. The Russian army's massive campaign in Chechnya, forceful comments by Russian military commanders, the promulgation of a new draft military doctrine, and the recent staging of military exercises and test launches by the Russian armed forces have prompted numerous commentators, such as William Odom, to claim that...

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