Policy Memos

The Next President of Ukraine: Predicting the Unpredictable

Policy Memo:


Publication Date:



It is obvious that the epoch of Leonid Kuchma in Ukraine is coming to its end. When and how this epoch will end and what, let alone who, will follow Kuchma is still extremely uncertain. Kuchma’s approval rating is in single digits and his reputation is damaged by scandals ranging from arms trade deals with Iraq to the murder of journalist Georgii Honhadze to anti-Semitic statements. Even with the possible intervention of the Constitutional Court to allow Kuchma to stand for a third term in office, Kuchma realizes that he will not be reelected. In the current situation, leaving office voluntarily would be a much better way for Kuchma to guarantee a more secure future for himself than by attempting to stay in power. [...]


About the author

Director,The EU Eastern Neighbourhood and Russia Programme
Finnish Institute of International Affairs