Russian futures: horizon 2025
(EUISS Report) Predicting Russia’s future is a perilous exercise. Many, indeed perhaps most, of those who have ventured to make such predictions in the past have erred in one way or…
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Russia
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Gorenburg: Russia’s goal in Syria now is to provide air support for the Syrian military to gain territory in ISIS controlled areas
(Washington Post) A Russian Mi-28 helicopter crashed in Syria Tuesday, according to a statement by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Its two crew members were killed, and the aircraft was said…
Newly-Formed National Guard Cannot Dispel Putin’s Multiple Insecurities
(EDM) The recent release of the “Panama Papers,” which revealed notorious cases of hidden money flows tied to the global elite, continues to cause a political stir across the world. But…
Changing of the guard: Putin’s law enforcement reforms
(ECFR) On the evening of 5 April Vladimir Putin invited four of his powerful siloviki contacts to accompany him in announcing Russia’s biggest law enforcement reform in almost 15 years. The…
Negotiation in a Stealth Conflict: The Pros and Cons of Plausible Deniability
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Compared to past conflicts between Russia and the West, the Ukraine conflict has been noted for the use of “stealth,” or covert, action. Parties to the conflict…
Impact of the economic crisis on Russian military modernization
The Cipher Brief asked me to write a short piece on the impact of Russia’s economic downturn on prospects for the Russian military, as part of a series on Russian military modernization.…
How Washington Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Eurasian Integration
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Regional integration is a core element of Washington’s vision for post-conflict Afghanistan. Captured by the metaphor of a New Silk Road (NSR), the U.S. has long sought…
Nuclear Security and Arms Control Are Non-Issues for Russia
(EDM) Russia’s absence from the nuclear summit in Washington, DC, last week was entirely predictable and yet baffling. Moscow announced its non-participation last November, and Secretary of State John Kerry…
Petrov: Russia’s legislative primaries are months away; there is a bit of uncertainty about it all
(CSM) In September, Russian voters will be able to directly elect some of their representatives to the national legislature – potentially allowing reformers to gain national office. Authorities are looking to stop…
Russian planes in Syria
Recently, Michael Kofman and I published an article arguing that Russia’s claimed withdrawal from Syria is not really a withdrawal, but rather a public relations move to normalize Russian military presence in…