Posts by Dmitry Gorenburg

Dmitry Gorenburg 04-03-2014
Отдавая должное улучшению подготовки и технического оснащения российской армии, зарубежные эксперты призывают не делать преувеличенных выводов: многие подразделения группировки войск в Крыму являются элитными. Старший аналитик американского Центра военно-морского анализа Дмитрий Горенбург подчеркивает также, что на полуострове не было боестолкновений: "В основном они освобождали объекты и строения от войск, которые не получили никаких приказов либо приказ...
Dmitry Gorenburg 03-13-2014
The crisis in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. I’ve written about the fleet in the past, but it may be worthwhile to provide an update, especially as there have been a couple of surveys of the fleet published in recent days in the Russian press and blogosphere. The fleet currently consists of 40 combat ships, 28 of which are on active duty while the others are undergoing repair or modernization. The average age of these...
Dmitry Gorenburg 03-10-2014
Here’s a useful map of the locations of Ukrainian military bases (as of 2008) and Russian forces located near Ukraine’s borders. It’s drawn from a new Russian language blog, and due to limited time I haven’t checked the accuracy of the map, I’m afraid. Feel free to note any inaccuracies in the comments. Note that the majority of Ukraine’s forces are located in Western Ukraine, as the positioning of the forces is left over from the Soviet period, when...
Dmitry Gorenburg 03-06-2014
The Russian military analyst Prokhor Tebin has put together a very useful article explaining Crimea’s military significance for Russia. He highlights the Black Sea’s economic significance for Russia: Russia’s Black Sea commercial ports carry 30 percent of its total maritime exports. The Black Sea also provides the closest access for Russia to the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean, which is important for both economic and geopolitical reasons. Tebin...
Dmitry Gorenburg 03-02-2014
I’ve avoided writing anything on the situation in Ukraine, because there’s so much material being written already and I’m not an expert on the Ukrainian military. But I do want to make just a couple of quick points. 1) Russian military experts seem to have been caught up in their government’s propaganda. This is especially disappointing when it comes from usually top-notch analysts such as Ruslan Pukhov and Igor Korotchenko. In an article that was picked...
Dmitry Gorenburg 02-12-2014
During most of the late 20th century, the Arctic region was primarily a zone of military interests, used by both NATO and Soviet strategic forces as bases for their nuclear submarines and as testing grounds for intercontinental ballistic missiles. With the end of the Cold War, the Arctic initially lost its strategic significance. In the last decade, however, thanks to a combination of accelerating climate change and a rapid increase in energy prices, it...
Dmitry Gorenburg 02-05-2014
The articles in this special issue of Problems of Post-Communism are written by some of the foremost experts on Russian politics from Russia, the United States, and Europe. PONARS Eurasia members Sufian Zhemukhov and Robert W. Orttung examine how Russia has orchestrated its security preparations. PONARS Eurasia member Andrey Makarychev and Natalia Gronskaya approach the Games by analyzing reports in the Russian-language press. For more, see the ...
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Dmitry Gorenburg 01-17-2014
The most recent issue of the Moscow Defense Brief has an interesting article by Maksim Shepovalenko on "Russian Preparations for Reduced Foreign Military Presence in Afghanstan." It starts with the usual line on how the Taliban could spread instability to Central Asia if it came to power after the coming withdrawal of ISAF, which is an argument that I and others have found to be exaggerated at times. The threat of Islamist infiltration of Central Asia is...
Dmitry Gorenburg 12-27-2013
The Russian government promulgated an interesting decree recently. It prohibits the import of foreign goods or work by foreigners for the Russian defense and security sectors, except in cases where the goods or labor is not available domestically. The accompanying list of goods that are exempt from the restriction because they are not produced in Russia nicely demonstrates the areas where Russian defense industry is weak. Here’s a rough translation of the...
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Dmitry Gorenburg 11-20-2013
As the drawdown of U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan has accelerated in preparation for the end of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2014, media attention has come to focus on the extent to which equipment being withdrawn from the region will be left behind for Central Asian states to use. At the same time, recent extensions of Russian military base agreements in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have underlined Russia’s own provision of military equipment and...

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