The fast-evolving Ukraine crisis has involved such high stakes and demanded so much attention from Russia’s leadership that it has become the decisive force shaping the country’s future. It has set this oversized incoherent state on a volatile trajectory heading (if in non-linear fashion) toward major disaster. Many Russian political elites understand that confrontation with the West is beyond their country’s economic might and is detrimental to its modernization. But this confrontation has become a necessary condition for the survival of the corrupt non-democratic regime that has matured under President Vladimir Putin. The only strategy available to him for sustaining Russia’s stance and avoiding international isolation is to strengthen Russia’s ties with China. This strategy, however, is loaded with complications and risks. […]
