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PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
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Боязнь нестабильности или защита российских интересов за рубежом? Почему Россия поддерживает репрессивные режимы в Сирии и в других стран

  • October 24, 2012
  • PONARS Eurasia

В последние месяцы Россия (при содействии Китая) оказывает все более решительную поддержку режиму Башара Асада. И, по мере того как ряды союзников Сирии редеют, Россия становится главным покровителем официального Дамаска на международной арене. Принимая во внимание прежние заявления Москвы, это позволяет сделать вывод, что Россия последовательно поддерживает режимы, столкнувшиеся с угрозой народных восстаний. Ничего нового в этом нет – подобные заявления российское руководство делало и во время иранской «Зеленой революции» 2009 года. Многие аналитики, пытающиеся объяснить, чем продиктована эта линия Кремля, указывают на российские инвестиции в экономику таких стран, как Ливия и Сирия, а также на политические связи, установленные еще в советские времена.   Эти факторы, несомненно, сыграли определенную роль при определении российского политического курса.  Однако угроза распространения волны политической нестабильности, а также опасения в связи с возникающим прецедентом, имеют для российского руководства не меньшее значение. В ближневосточных революциях российские лидеры усматривают потенциал для распространения волнений на другие страны – опасаясь, что успешный пример народных восстаний может отрицательно сказаться на политически уязвимых режимах Центральной Азии. Предметом настоящей записки является соотношение практических интересов и идеологических факторов, сыгравших свою роль при разработке российской позиции по отношению к «арабской весне».

Memo #:
198
Series:
2
PDF:
pepm198_russ_Gorenburg_may2012.pdf
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