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  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

Запад и тюремное заключение Юлии Тимошенко: Когда эффект позитивного воздействия оказывается недостаточным?

  • October 24, 2012
  • PONARS Eurasia

При каких обстоятельствах Запад не может результативно повлиять на развитие внутриполитических процессов в соседней стране и на соблюдение в ней норм демократии? Я отвечу на этот вопрос, анализируя провал попыток западных стран не допустить заключения под стражу лидера украинской оппозиции Юлии Тимошенко. В частности, я намерен доказать, что доминирующие теории об эффективности западных инструментов воздействия, в которых основное внимание уделяется привлекательности поощрительных стимулов, предлагаемых той или иной стране при условии соблюдения ею определенных правил, либо на их структурных свойствах, неприменимы к ситуации, сложившейся вокруг дела Тимошенко. Более того, анализируя модели торга с целью заключения политической сделки, применяемые в международных отношениях, я намерен показать, что определенные свойства предмета спора могут ограничить эффективность позитивного воздействия, основанного на обещании вознаграждения в будущем в обмен на выполнение выдвинутых требований. Я также продемонстрирую, как непоследовательность первоначальной позиции, занятой западными правительствами в отношении дела Тимошенко, свела на нет их дальнейшие попытки оказать воздействие на украинские власти. В настоящей аналитической записке на конкретном примере будет рассмотрен более широкий вопрос о том, при каких условиях позитивное воздействие не в состоянии предотвратить регресс демократии в условиях режимов гибридного типа.

Memo #:
205
Series:
2
PDF:
pepm205_russ_kudelia_may2012.pdf
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