PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
    • Ukraine Experts
    • About Membership
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
    • Ukraine Experts
    • About Membership
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • Policy Briefs | BEAR Network-PONARS Eurasia Conference

    View
  • The Baltic States Are Also Worried About Russia

    View
  • International Society Must Act in the Wake of Russia’s Failed Opposition

    View
  • The Collapse of the Soviet Union | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
  • Labor Migration in Russia | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
Uncategorized

Can Uzbekistan’s Economy Retain its High Growth Rate? Scenarios of Economic Development in 2015-30

  • December 17, 2014
  • Vladimir Popov

Uzbekistan over the past ten years has had an extremely successful economy, with high growth rates (8%), low domestic and international debt, an undervalued exchange rate, a relatively even distribution of income, and a created-from-scratch, competitive, export-oriented auto industry. It is important, though, to avoid any “dizziness from success” and to envisage possible growth traps in its future. This paper discusses two unfavourable scenarios: trade shocks due to a decline in cotton, gas, and gold prices (e.g., a deterioration of its current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP). Also considered are the possible government responses to these potential negative occurances, in particular changes in the government’s industrial policies.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been promoting heavy chemistry industries (primarily the production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas). This is the “next stage” of industrial policy after reaching food and energy self-sufficiency and successful auto industry development. There are reservations, however, about this stage and strategy. First, gas production is about to decline due to depletion of reserves. Second, the level and growth rates of TFP in heavy chemistry are by far not the highest (they are the highest in light and food industry and in machine building). An increased share of heavy chemistry of total industrial output will cause a decline in the level and the growth rates of TFP. Third, the auto industry is already a success, thus it may be reasonable to continue to support machine building industries, particularly those involving medium-level technology. Finally, for a country of this “average size,” the export specialization in two major areas (autos and heavy chemistry) may prove to be excessive.

Working Paper Author:
Vladimir Popov
Working Paper Publication Year:
2014
Working Paper Cover Image:

Working Paper PDF:
Popov_Uzbekistan Scenarios_Working Paper_2014.pdf
Working Paper Description:

Uzbekistan over the past ten years has had an extremely successful economy, with high growth rates (8%), low domestic and international debt, an undervalued exchange rate, a relatively even distribution of income, and a created-from-scratch, competitive, export-oriented auto industry. It is important, though, to avoid any “dizziness from success” and to envisage possible growth traps in its future. This paper discusses two unfavourable scenarios: trade shocks due to a decline in cotton, gas, and gold prices (e.g., a deterioration of its current account balance by 10 p.p. of GDP) and a decline in growth rates of total factor productivity (TFP). Also considered are the possible government responses to these potential negative occurances, in particular changes in the government’s industrial policies.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has been promoting heavy chemistry industries (primarily the production of synthetic fuel and polypropylene goods from natural gas). This is the “next stage” of industrial policy after reaching food and energy self-sufficiency and successful auto industry development. There are reservations, however, about this stage and strategy. First, gas production is about to decline due to depletion of reserves. Second, the level and growth rates of TFP in heavy chemistry are by far not the highest (they are the highest in light and food industry and in machine building). An increased share of heavy chemistry of total industrial output will cause a decline in the level and the growth rates of TFP. Third, the auto industry is already a success, thus it may be reasonable to continue to support machine building industries, particularly those involving medium-level technology. Finally, for a country of this “average size,” the export specialization in two major areas (autos and heavy chemistry) may prove to be excessive.

Vladimir Popov
Vladimir Popov
Website | + posts
Research Director, Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute (Berlin); Principal Researcher, Russian Academy of Sciences; Professor Emeritus, New Economic School; Adjunct Research Professor, Carleton University
Affiliation

Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute, Berlin
Links

New Economic School (Bio), Carleton University (Bio), Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute
Expertise

Economics of Development and Transition, Economic Growth, Russia, China
  • Vladimir Popov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/vladimir-popov/
    Learning from Asia: How to Handle Coronavirus Economic Recessions
  • Vladimir Popov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/vladimir-popov/
    When Life Expectancy Is Falling: Mortality Crises in Post-Communist Countries in a Global Context
  • Vladimir Popov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/vladimir-popov/
    Does the Middle East Have What it Takes to Progress?
  • Vladimir Popov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/vladimir-popov/
    Free Trade’s Diminishing Returns
Previous Article
Uncategorized

Сохранит ли экономика Узбекистана высокие темпы роста? Сценарии развития в 2015-2030 гг.

  • December 17, 2014
  • Vladimir Popov
View
Next Article
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Will Russia’s economic turmoil affect its foreign policy?

  • December 18, 2014
  • PONARS Eurasia
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

The Changing “De-facto State Playbook”: From Opportunism to Strategic Calculation

  • Tetyana Malyarenko and Stefan Wolff
  • May 27, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Policy Briefs | BEAR Network-PONARS Eurasia Conference

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • May 25, 2022
View
  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

The Limits of Authoritarian Learning: Deconstructing Kazakhstan’s 2022 Coup Attempt

  • Azamat Junisbai
  • May 20, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Baltic States Are Also Worried About Russia

  • Ralph Clem and Erik Herron
  • May 19, 2022
View
  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

The Expanding Russian Cossack Movement: A Social Base for Putinism

  • Richard Arnold
  • May 18, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

International Society Must Act in the Wake of Russia’s Failed Opposition

  • Robert Orttung
  • May 12, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Collapse of the Soviet Union | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • May 12, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Labor Migration in Russia | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • May 11, 2022

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.