Today’s conflict in Ukraine hinges on perceptions of a stark East-West political divide. This memo assesses the extent to which geographic variation characterizes other elements of today’s Ukraine, mainly those related to human capital: demography, health, and migration. It also examines human capital factors as determinants or limits impacting the near- to medium-term trajectory of the country as a whole. In sum, demographic decline is even more severe in Ukraine than in Russia. As a result, an aging and unhealthy Ukrainian population will constrain pathways forward for the development of its conscription pool and labor force, and elder-care obligations will increasingly burden public sector budgets. These negative trends are significantly more pronounced in the eastern, central, and southern parts of Ukraine than in the west.
New Policy Memo: Ukraine: Trends and Regional Dynamics in Population, Health, and Migration
Professor, Department of Political Science
Affiliation
Virginia Commonwealth University
Expertise
Russia, Public Health, Demographics