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PONARS Eurasia
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Азербайджано-иранские отношения являются одними из самых сложных двусторонних отношений в регионе, пережившими радикальные трансформации за последние 20 лет. Будучи сердечными друзьями и братскими нациями к моменту окончания холодной войны, Азербайджан и Иран чуть не вступили в вооруженный конфликт десятилетие спустя, и с тех пор отношения между двумя странами остаются напряженными.

Данные отношения определяются несколькими факторами. Первым из них является наличие в Иране 22-30-миллионного азербайджанского меньшинства, (наиболее многочисленного из меньшинств). С тех пор как Азербайджан обрел независимость, Тегеран все время тревожится, что Баку может разыграть этническую карту для давления на Иран. Во-вторых, Тегеран раздражает светский характер азербайджанского режима, который по-прежнему является моделью развития не только для иранских азербайджанцев, но и для других народов. Ежегодно в марте порядка 40 тысяч граждан Ирана пересекают границу с Азербайджаном чтобы отпраздновать Новруз в светском государстве. Более того, Тегеран считает азербайджанскую ‘мягкую силу’ (музыку, фильмы и образ жизни) опасной для себя. Неудивительно, что конкурс песни «Евровидение», который прошел в Баку в мае 2012 года, возмутил Иран и привел к отзыву иранского посла из Баку на время этого мероприятия. Наконец, не последнюю роль играют постоянные и временами приносящие успех попытки Ирана создать базу для своей поддержки в Азербайджане. Деятельность Исламской партии Азербайджана и многочисленные протестные акции поддерживаемой Ираном религиозной молодежи являются яркими примерами стремления Тегерана оказывать влияние на азербайджанскую общественную жизнь. Несмотря на то, что Баку удалось успешно пресечь попытки проиранских группировок усилить свою роль в азербайджанской политике, интенсивность таких попыток постепенно нарастает. В чем же состоит суть отношений между двумя государствами и что обещает им будущее?

 

Memo #:
244
Series:
2
PDF:
pepm244_russ_valiev_sept2012.pdf
Anar Valiyev
Anar Valiyev
Website | + posts
Dean and Associate Professor, School of Public and International Affairs
Affiliation

ADA University, Baku
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ADA University (Bio)
Expertise

Public Policy of Post-Soviet Republics, Democracy and Governance, Urban Development and Planning
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