(EDM) The memorandum of understanding on Syria signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Sochi, on October 22, was seen as a triumph in Moscow (see EDM, October 24); but the jubilation evaporated in a matter of days. The Kremlin grew upset regarding how the United States and Turkey seemed to take on exclusive management of the new escalation of the Syrian crisis even as the widely reported-on six-hour bargaining session in Sochi cemented Russia’s role as a major owner of this violent debacle (Kommersant, October 23). Now, Russian experts and officials have begun to more soberly assess the costs and risks of the new commitment, and the surge of joy over yet again having demonstrated Russia’s “Great Power” status is turning into deepening worry. Putin seemingly has always wanted to achieve victory in Syria on the cheap, and he repeatedly announced intentions to withdraw the bulk of Russian forces engaged in the protracted intervention (see EDM, March 17, 21, 2016 and November 27, 2017). The apparent imperative to abandon this vision is, therefore, unlikely to be satisfactory to him. […]
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