PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
    • Ukraine Experts
    • About Membership
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
    • Ukraine Experts
    • About Membership
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • Policy Briefs | BEAR Network-PONARS Eurasia Conference

    View
  • The Baltic States Are Also Worried About Russia

    View
  • International Society Must Act in the Wake of Russia’s Failed Opposition

    View
  • The Collapse of the Soviet Union | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
  • Labor Migration in Russia | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russian Strategic Culture in a Baltic Crisis

  • April 4, 2019
  • Dmitry Gorenburg

(Russian Military Reform | Marshall Center) As part of a collaborative project on Russian strategic culture and leadership decision-making, organized by the Marshall Center with support from the Russia Strategy Initiative, I have published a policy brief on Russian strategic goals in a Baltic crisis. Here is the executive summary and some highlights. The full brief is available through the Marshall Center website.

Executive Summary

  • This policy brief addresses how Russian strategic culture operates in the distinct geographic and geopolitical environment of the Baltic region. This analysis is based on a model of Russian decision–making in crisis situations that describes Russian leaders as prospect theory players who take greater risks to prevent anticipated defeats than they do to pursue potential opportunities. They seek to prevent foreign policy defeats that could translate into a loss of power in the region, a loss of great power status, or, in some cases, translate into political defeats at home.

  • Given this strategic calculus, we can expect Russia to act cautiously in the Baltic region because it is not facing a loss situation. Based on Russia’s limited stakes in the region, Russian leaders are likely to be highly reluctant to risk a major military confrontation with NATO through any overuse of Russian military forces. They will be careful to limit both the level of risk and the level of effort they would take on in this scenario.

  • Russia’s approach to managing a Baltic crisis scenario is based on the recognition that the balance of stakes and capabilities in such a situation ultimately would favor the West. If Baltic governments and their NATO allies both hesitate in their response, Russian leaders may seek to use the crisis to gain a strategic advantage. However, if Russian leaders see a forceful response in the early stages of a crisis, they would be likely to de-escalate in order to avert major losses.

Read More © Russian Military Reform | Marshall Center

 

Dmitry Gorenburg
Website | + posts
Center Associate; Senior Research Scientist

Affiliation

Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University; CNA

Links

Davis Center, Harvard University (Bio)

Expertise

Political Science, Russian Military, Eurasian Security Issues, Russian Politics, Ethnic Identity and Conflict
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/dmitry-gorenburg/
    Russia’s Foreign Military Basing Strategy
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/dmitry-gorenburg/
    The Arrest of Ivan Safronov
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/dmitry-gorenburg/
    Russia and Collective Security: Why CSTO Is No Match for Warsaw Pact
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/dmitry-gorenburg/
    An Emerging Strategic Partnership: Trends in Russia-China Military Cooperation
Related Topics
  • Baltics
  • Gorenburg
  • NATO
  • Russia
Previous Article
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kudelia: Young people who vote for Zelenskiy are not particularly responsive to the social promises Tymoshenko is known for

  • April 4, 2019
  • PONARS Eurasia
View
Next Article
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Rogov: Soft authoritarian regimes that rely on economic growth start looking for new sources of legitimacy and broaden repressive practices

  • April 5, 2019
  • Kirill Rogov
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Policy Briefs | BEAR Network-PONARS Eurasia Conference

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • May 25, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Baltic States Are Also Worried About Russia

  • Ralph Clem and Erik Herron
  • May 19, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

International Society Must Act in the Wake of Russia’s Failed Opposition

  • Robert Orttung
  • May 12, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Collapse of the Soviet Union | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • May 12, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Labor Migration in Russia | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • May 11, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Did Russia Put Its Geopolitical Glasses Back On? It Never Took Them Off in the First Place

  • Martin Jirušek
  • May 5, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Between the EU and Russia: Domains of Diversity and Contestation (April 29-30)

  • PONARS Eurasia
  • April 25, 2022
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

How Popular Is Putin, Really?

  • Ora John Reuter, Noah Buckley, Katerina Tertytchnaya and Kyle L. Marquardt
  • April 14, 2022

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.