McGlinchey

Policy Memos | Аналитика
Насильственные протесты в Центральной Азии принимают различные формы, равно как и реакция властей на них. В Казахстане насильственные протесты редки и носят экономический характер, в ответ государство зачастую удовлетворяет требования протестующих. В Узбекистане насильственные протесты также редки и зачастую носят исламскую окраску, а ответной реакцией государства являются репрессии. В Киргизстане и Таджикистане насильственные протесты случаются часто и...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
This memo explores political Islam in Central Asia from three perspectives: that of (1) U.S. government analysts; (2) Central Asian government leaders; and (3) everyday Central Asian Muslims. Drawing on public statements and field research, I demonstrate that these three perceptions of political Islam in Central Asia differ markedly. U.S. government analysts consistently identify two groups, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Unable to achieve change through the ballot box, the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks have taken to the streets in an effort to turn out their authoritarian leaders. Despite divergent outcomes, the Kyrgyz and Uzbek protests confirm that fourteen years after the Soviet collapse, the region is finally ripe for political change. The patronage networks which sustained Central Asia’s first generation of post-Soviet strongmen are showing signs of vulnerability. New...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
While ideologies and elites change, patronage politics remains the preferred strategy of Central Asia’s autocrats. Aspiring presidents-for-life distribute wealth to handpicked appointees who reciprocate by implementing, to varying degrees, executive policy. Shared strategies of rule, however, do not translate into shared state capacity. The trains do not always run on time, and in many places in Central Asia, the trains do not run at all. Similarly...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
May 2008 marked the three-year anniversary of the tragic Andijon events in Uzbekistan’s Fergana Valley. My understanding of these events is informed by discussions with Uzbek colleagues both within and outside of President Islam Karimov’s government. These confidants have, at considerable risk to themselves and their families, confirmed that the Karimov government applied disproportionate force in suppressing the largely peaceful protest in...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Central Asia’s growing instability has opened the region to a host of would-be political entrepreneurs. The March and May 2005 uprisings in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan underscored the weakness of Eurasian authoritarianism and emboldened both domestic and international actors to stake new claims in Central Asia’s increasingly uncertain political landscape. Some of these actors seek deepened political and economic reform. Others, however, are...
Policy Memos | Аналитика
Central Asian rule today is moving more toward dynasty than toward democracy. During the past decade, Central Asian leaders have rewritten, manipulated, even jettisoned constitutions so as to ensure their continued hold on presidential power. Gone are the heady Gorbachev days when mass public demonstrations led to the downfall of more than a few Central Asian first secretaries. Indeed, not since the Brezhnev period have Central...

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