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PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
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  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Элиты: новое вино в новые мехи?

  • January 4, 2017
  • Nikolay Petrov

Последние два года стали переломными в кадровой политике Кремля. На фоне высочайшей популярности лидера и выхолащивания формальных институтов перестали действовать прежние правила игры, а новые до сих пор не объявлены. Системе удалось снизить остроту кадровой проблемы, обусловленную старением путинских соратников. Вопрос в том, надолго ли.

Впервые из игры выведен значительный отряд верхушки путинской элиты, члены которой до сих пор пользовались статусом «неприкосновенности». Отставленные с ключевых постов тяжеловесы получают синекуры , а их дети остаются на высоких постах в системе. На ключевые должности приходит второе поколение путинских элит — те, кто начинал карьеру уже при Путине-президенте. Это в большинстве своем не заместители, наследовавшие шефам, а новички, часто совсем из других структур, которые по возрасту годятся своим предшественникам в дети.

Общая картина последних кадровых перестановок меняет устоявшееся представление о ситуативности, реактивности и конъюнктурном характере кадровых решений. Они определяют дальнейшие перспективы и как будто призваны решить задачи, выходящие за рамки «дожития» до 2018 года.

Однако системы воспроизводства кадров как не было, так и нет, а кроме того, массовое «освежение крови» привело не столько к увеличению ресурса действующей системы, сколько к ее переустройству. В результате система стала еще более персонифицированной; резко возросли риски, связанные с будущим ослаблением/уходом первого лица, когда бы он ни произошел.

Это означает, что нынешнее состояние системы следует рассматривать скорее как промежуточное. Сменщики в силу молодости и отсутствия политического веса не способны надолго заменить своих предшественников на соответствующих постах, и по-видимому, и не предназначены для этой цели. Роль по крайней мере части из них заключается в обеспечении для Путина полного контроля за важными регионами и корпорациями — на время, как можно ожидать, серьезного политического маневра, связанного с изменением курса и, возможно, конфигурации власти […]

Читать всю статью | © Контрапункт

Nikolay Petrov
Website | + posts
Professor, Department of Comparative Politics; Senior Research Fellow
Affiliation

Higher School of Economics, Russia; Chatham House, UK
Links

Higher School of Economics (Bio), Chatham House (Bio)
Expertise

Russia, Politics, Elites, Elections, Regions, Georgraphy
  • Nikolay Petrov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/nikolay-petrov/
    Expectations for Russia’s September Parliamentary Elections
  • Nikolay Petrov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/nikolay-petrov/
    As Anger at Ruling Regime Boils Over, Putin Strikes Hard Against Dissent
  • Nikolay Petrov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/nikolay-petrov/
    Protests in Russia Show How the Political Environment Has Changed
  • Nikolay Petrov
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/nikolay-petrov/
    Russia on the Eve of its Presidential Election: How Long Can Change and Stasis Coexist?
Related Topics
  • Петров
  • Путин
  • Россия
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