PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • The Russia Program at GW (IERES)

    View
  • The Evolving Concerns of Russians after the Invasion | New Voices on Eurasia with Sasha de Vogel (March 9)

    View
  • PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference (March 3)

    View
  • Ukrainathon 2023 (Feb. 24-25)

    View
  • How Putin has shrugged off unprecedented economic sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine – for now

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Lukashenko as a Symptom of German Troubles

  • April 8, 2013
  • Andrey Makarychev

When Manfred Sapper, editor-in-chief of the German Osteuropa journal, in his public discussion with the Belorusian writer Sviatlana Kurs asked, “What does Germany have to do with the Lukashenko regime?", it looked like a tacit indication of the crisis of Berlin's Ostpolitik. Perhaps, Dr.Sapper's approach is right: since neither Political Science nor International Relations give a more or less clear answer to this question, why don't we start looking for answers beyond academia – for example, in literary discourses? Maybe authors like Kurs can better explain why Lukashenko, with all his dictatorial tools, still keeps borders more or less open, and why is he successful in extracting Russian resources in exchange for almost nothing?

The idea of talking politics with writers could be quite good. The only problem is that German policy toward Belarus is rather symbolic. What came immediately to my mind is a recent conference by DGO (German Society for Eastern Europe) that ended up in a club concert performed by the Belarussian rock group "Krambambulya." It was fun, and we had a good time.

Both independent music and literature do matter, and the Germans have all the reason to promote them in Europe. But this can't hide something that is politically quintessential – the hardship of Germany's (as well as EU's) Eastern European policies. Neither of the three Slavic states shows willingness to move closer to the EU normative standards, and even Moldova – only a few months ago a success story of Europanization – is again marred by domestic instability and lack of consensus.

Perhaps the key problem is that the EU wanted to transform Eastern Europe along its own recipes, and underestimated that the elites in Moscow, Kyiv, Minsk, and Chisinau are basically busy with domestic power struggles. It seems that pro-EU sentiments don't always give much advantage in it.

Germany indeed is at a cross-roads in its Eastern policy. Reactions of the German foundations in Russia, which were subjects of inspections by officials, as well statements by the German Foreign Ministry to these inspections, were relatively mild. Many chose to take a wait-and-see position, expecting the situtaion to be solved one way or another by itself.

It definitely did, but the impression that Berlin implicitly – and, of course, unwillingly -plays by the rules of neighboring autocrats is strong. Those who disagree have to be reminded that a couple of weeks ago, Berlin lifted its reservations against the so called special passports for the Russian ruling group and thus gave a green light to Putin's loyalists to travel to Europe visa-free. The result? Police searches and confiscation of equipment in German foundations working in Russia.

The most regrettable aspect is that while the EU in general and Germany in particular were eager to contrive a policy toward Eastern Europe, the Kremlin in fact did nothing, and seems to be close to get what it wanted – perhaps, only in a short run. Yet doubts in the success of the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership scheduled for November 2013 are quite substantial.

Perhaps, from the very inception of the Eastern Partnership, the EU had overrated expectations about its ability to change East European neighbors. Nowadays it is clear that most of post-Soviet Eurasian countries develop in a different direction, and the EU has to accept this. It also has to admit that the key problem is not Putin or Lukashenko, but the state of societies in these countries. In the worst-case scenario, the EU and the Eastern Europe might be simply tired of each other.

Andrey Makarychev is a Guest Professor at the Free University of Berlin, blogging for PONARS Eurasia on the Russia-EU neighborhood.

Related Topics
  • Makarychev
Previous Article
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Malpractices in the Russian Higher Education System

  • April 5, 2013
  • Serghei Golunov
View
Next Article
  • In the News | Hовости

Мюнхен, Мезеберг, Меркель

  • April 9, 2013
  • Arkady Moshes
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Desire to Possess: Russia’s War for Territory

  • Irina Busygina
  • February 8, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kyiv-Washington Relations in Times of Colossal War: The Ultimate Test of a Strategic Partnership

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • January 11, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Prevailing Soviet Legacies

  • Irina Busygina and Mikhail Filippov
  • December 27, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

In Russia’s Nuclear Messaging to West and Ukraine, Putin Plays Both Bad and Good Cop

  • Simon Saradzhyan
  • December 23, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Ukraine’s Asymmetric Responses to the Russian Invasion

  • Nurlan Aliyev
  • July 28, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем
  • Territorial Conflict

Dominating Ukraine’s Sky

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • March 5, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russian Anti-War Protests and the State’s Response

  • Lauren McCarthy
  • March 4, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Путин и Лукашенко

  • Konstantin Sonin
  • August 29, 2020

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.