PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • The Desire to Possess: Russia’s War for Territory

    View
  • Russia at War and the Islamic World

    View
  • Ukraine’s Ripple Effect on Russia’s Indo-Pacific Horizon

    View
  • The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees | New Voices on Eurasia with Volha Charnysh (Feb. 16)

    View
  • Conflicts in the North Caucasus Since 1991 | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Rakhmon Haggles with Putin

  • August 6, 2013
  • Shairbek Dzhuraev

On August 1, Tajikistan President Emomali Rakhmon paid a quick visit to Moscow to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Commentators agree the visit is essentially linked to the expected presidential elections in Tajikistan in November, as Rakhmon needs to ensure full support for himself in Moscow.

Russian-Tajik relations remain fairly complicated. Some key unresolved issues that have dominated the bilateral agenda for past years include:

  • prolongation of the agreement on the Russian military base in Tajikistan, with Dushanbe effectively delaying its completion by linking it to other items in bilateral relations (listed next);
  • export duties on Russian gasoline supplied to Tajikistan, making the latter heavily dependent on gasoline smuggled from Kyrgyzstan, which, in its turn, won an exemption from paying the Russian export fee; and
  • Russia’s vague promise of military assistance and Tajikistan’s insistence on Russian investments into hydropower plants.

The pre-election visit of Rakhmon was certainly a convenient moment for Russia to remind him of earlier commitments.

Tajikistan hosts Russia’s largest military base outside its territory with about 7,000 troops based in three different sites. The base was created on the basis of the 201th division that operated in Afghanistan before getting stationed in Tajikistan as a part of the Russian military. In 2004, Tajikistan and Russia signed a 10-year agreement for the base. In September 2011, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced a new agreement for the military base that would last for 49 years and that would be signed by April 2012. This, however, was not to happen, mainly as a result of Tajikistan’s position. A 30-year deal was signed in October 2012 during Putin’s visit to Dushanbe. The Russian Duma ratified the agreement in April 2013, but the Tajik parliament has not done so yet.

Apparently Dushanbe has been trying to link the finalization of the agreement on the military base with securing some important concessions from Russia. Particularly, Tajikistan has been insisting on more clarity on Russian $200 million-worth military assistance to Tajikistan, Russian investments into construction of several Tajik hydropower plants, and cancelling the export duty on Russian gasoline supplied to Tajikistan.

The August 1 talks between Rakhmon and Putin have not added any clarity regarding the issues. Rakhmon once again made a promise of ratification of the military base agreement as soon as the Tajik parliament returns from summer recess, and apparently before the elections, which are expected sometime in the middle of November. Rakhmon also confirmed Tajikistan’s interest in seeking Russian investments into hydro energy. However, the Russian president remained reserved, limiting his rhetoric to general statements about activation of cooperation on drug-trafficking, terrorism, and so on, and avoided any mention of gasoline export fees and investments into hydro power plants.

The important role of the Russian media in Tajikistan and the existence of over one million Tajik labor migrants in Russia are among the key reasons why Tajikistan’s leader seeks the Kremlin’s support at this juncture. Likewise, Moscow, though careful with promises, is interested in securing a loyal leader in Tajikistan, given that it lost much leverage against some other bigger states in the region. A reference point for both may be the Kyrgyz-Russian bilateral deals in 2009-2010 that similarly involved promises on base agreements (albeit, an American one), investments into the energy sector, and the same infamous export duty on Russian gasoline, all in the context of the Kyrgyzstan’s presidential elections and its aftermath.

Shairbek Juraev is with the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, blogging for PONARS Eurasia on Central Asian issues. The comments made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.

Related Topics
  • Central Asia
  • Juraev
  • Russia
  • Tajikistan
Previous Article
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Sochi Olympics Security Measures

  • August 6, 2013
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
View
Next Article
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Reactions to Obama’s Decision to Cancel Summit with Putin in September

  • August 7, 2013
  • Joshua Tucker
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Desire to Possess: Russia’s War for Territory

  • Irina Busygina
  • February 8, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kyiv-Washington Relations in Times of Colossal War: The Ultimate Test of a Strategic Partnership

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • January 11, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Prevailing Soviet Legacies

  • Irina Busygina and Mikhail Filippov
  • December 27, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

In Russia’s Nuclear Messaging to West and Ukraine, Putin Plays Both Bad and Good Cop

  • Simon Saradzhyan
  • December 23, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Ukraine’s Asymmetric Responses to the Russian Invasion

  • Nurlan Aliyev
  • July 28, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем
  • Territorial Conflict

Dominating Ukraine’s Sky

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • March 5, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russian Anti-War Protests and the State’s Response

  • Lauren McCarthy
  • March 4, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Путин и Лукашенко

  • Konstantin Sonin
  • August 29, 2020

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.