The Time Is Right for Ukraine to Revisit the Lessons of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh that began in late September 2020 and lasted 44 days generated extensive analyses among journalists, academics, politicians, and…

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Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea

(American Political Science Review) When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging…

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Russians supported Putin’s moves in Crimea in 2014. Here’s what’s different in 2021

(Monkey Cage blog/Washington Post) Many analysts have worried in recent weeks about a large buildup of Russian military forces along the Ukrainian border. Russian troops have gathered in areas near the ongoing conflict in the Donbas, and some…

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The Real and Projected Strategic Dimension of the Russian Black Sea Fleet

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Since its annexation of Crimea, Russia has not deviated from its coercive military behavior, displaying its military might again and again. The substance of its military…

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The US Role in the Black Sea Region

(Ukraine Analytica) The US remains the only true superpower with a global reach. In reaching out to the Black Sea, the US has a variety of tools and levers: diplomatic, political,…

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Crimea, Economic Sanctions, and Rally Around the Flag in Russia

(Wilson Center) On February 28, 2014, pro-Russian gunmen seized key buildings in Crimea. In response, the United States levied economic sanctions against Russia on March 6. Approval ratings for the Russian leadership then soared and remained high…

How the Trump Administration’s Contradictory Policies Impact Ukraine

(PONARS Policy Memo) There was widespread anticipation of profound changes in relations between the United States and Ukraine in light of the 2016 U.S. presidential election results. As a candidate,…

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The politics of unpredictability: Acc/secession of Crimea and the blurring of international norms

(East European Politics) (Co-authored with Martin Mölder) This article focuses on prominent recent episodes where Russia has put sovereignty, the obligation to refrain (O2R) from using force, and self-determination to…

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Warfare in a Post-Truth World: Lessons from Ukraine

(PONARS Policy Memo) The U.S. intelligence community’s January 6 report about Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election highlighted the role of Russian media organizations in spreading fake news and…

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