PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
Contacts
Address 1957 E St NW, Washington, DC 20052 adminponars@gwu.edu 202.994.5915
NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • Preparing for the Parliamentary Elections of 2021: Russian Politics and Society (Gel’man, Lankina, Semenov, Smyth, and more)

    View
  • Russians supported Putin’s moves in Crimea in 2014. Here’s what’s different in 2021

    View
  • Putin’s Rules of the Game: The Pitfalls of Russia’s New Constitution

    View
  • In the Caucasus, There Is a Peace Agreement but Not Peace

    View
  • Russia’s Niche Soft Power: Sources, Targets and Channels of Influence

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • Music and Politics in Contemporary Russia [Lipman Series 2021] April 12, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Gorbachev about the dynamic music scene in contemporary Russia, and how free Russian musicians are to make political statements.
  • How is the Russian Government Coping with Rising Food Prices? [Lipman Series 2021] March 15, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Anton Tabakh about rising food prices in Russia, and what they might mean for Russia's current and future stability.
  • The Communist Party of the Russian Federation: More Than Just Systemic Opposition? [Lipman Series 2021] March 5, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Felix Light and Nikolay Petrov about the contemporary Communist Party of the Russian Federation, including the divisions between its leadership and membership, its attitude toward Alexei Navalny, and why it might be more than just "systemic" opposition after all.
  • Internet Resources: Civic Communication and State Surveillance [Lipman Series 2021] February 16, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Andrei Soldatov and Tanya Lokot about the role of the internet in contemporary Russian politics, including both as a tool of the Russian opposition and as an instrument of the increasingly repressive Russian regime.
  • The Rise of Alexei Navalny's Political Stature and Mass Protest in Russia [Lipman Series 2021] February 1, 2021
    In the first PONARS Eurasia Podcast of 2021, Maria Lipman chats with Greg Yudin about the current protests taking place in Russia, and what Alexei Navalny's growing popular support means for the Putin regime.
  • Russian Social Policy in the COVID-19 Era [Lipman Series 2020] December 21, 2020
    In 2020’s final episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sarah Wilson Sokhey and Ella Paneyakh to discuss Russian social policy in the COVID-19 era, and public perception of Russia’s overall pandemic response.
  • Conscious Parenting Practices in Contemporary Russia [Lipman Series 2020] December 10, 2020
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Julia Yuzbasheva and Maria Danilova to learn more about the proliferation of "conscious parenting" practices in contemporary Russian society.
  • The Transformation of Belarussian Society [Lipman Series 2020] November 11, 2020
    In this episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Masha Lipman chats with Grigory Ioffe about the long-term and short-term factors that led up to the current protests in Belarus, and the ongoing transformation of Belarussian society.
  • Russian Lawmakers Adjust National Legislation to the Revised Constitutional Framework [Lipman Series 2020] October 26, 2020
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about ongoing changes to Russia’s national legislation based on the recently revised constitutional framework, and what these changes portend for the 2021 Duma election.
  • Russia's Regional Elections [Lipman Series 2020] September 25, 2020
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Graeme Robertson and Konstantin Gaaze about Russia’s September 13 regional elections and whether or not the Kremlin should be worried about upcoming Duma elections.
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Understanding Russia’s Intervention in Syria

  • October 31, 2019
  • Samuel Charap

(Rand) Russia’s 2015 military intervention in Syria’s civil war took many by surprise and raised questions about the potential for similar actions in other conflicts outside of post-Soviet Eurasia. The authors of this report assess where and under what conditions Moscow could intervene again by analyzing the factors that drive Russian decisionmaking on intervention. In addition to the 2015 intervention in Syria, they examine four smaller-scale interventions in conflicts outside of Russia’s immediate neighborhood: Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Syria itself before 2015.

The analysis demonstrates that Moscow’s decision to intervene in Syria in 2015 resulted from an extraordinary confluence of political drivers and military conditions. This set of circumstances is very unlikely to be replicated elsewhere. Indeed, the drivers for an intervention on a scale comparable to the 2015 action in Syria are absent in any of the other three countries examined in the report. However, the other cases that were considered in this report suggest that the conditions for intervention short of direct, overt use of the military, but greater than mere diplomacy, are more commonplace: The conflict in question presents a high level of threat to Russian security (as in Afghanistan), promises a high level of geopolitical benefit for Moscow (as in Libya), or demonstrates moderate levels of both (as in Syria pre-2015). That threshold could plausibly be met in a variety of country settings, which suggests that there are likely to be more of these smaller-scale interventions in the future. 

Co-authors: Samuel Charap, Elina Treyger, and Edward Geist.

Read More © Rand Corporation

 

Samuel Charap
Website | + posts
Senior Political Scientist, Washington Office

Affiliation

RAND Corporation

Links

RAND Corporation (Bio)

Expertise

Political Economy and Foreign Policies of Russia and Former Soviet States, European and Eurasian Regional Security, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Arms Control
  • Samuel Charap
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/samuel-charap/
    Strategic Sderzhivanie: Understanding Contemporary Russian Approaches to “Deterrence”
  • Samuel Charap
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/samuel-charap/
    A New Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe
  • Samuel Charap
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/samuel-charap/
    Украинский кризис: победителей нет
  • Samuel Charap
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/samuel-charap/
    The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia
Related Topics
  • Charap
  • Middle East
  • Russia
  • Syria
Previous Article
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kramer: Mr. Bukovsky emerged from his experience in the Soviet Union looking like such a remarkably admirable figure because he stuck to his principles

  • October 31, 2019
  • PONARS Eurasia
View
Next Article
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kalmyks Protest Donbas Separatist Who Was Appointed Mayor of Republican Capital

  • November 3, 2019
  • Richard Arnold
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Preparing for the Parliamentary Elections of 2021: Russian Politics and Society (Gel’man, Lankina, Semenov, Smyth, and more)

  • Robert Orttung
  • April 14, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russians supported Putin’s moves in Crimea in 2014. Here’s what’s different in 2021

  • Timothy Frye
  • April 13, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Putin’s Rules of the Game: The Pitfalls of Russia’s New Constitution

  • Brian Taylor
  • April 12, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

In the Caucasus, There Is a Peace Agreement but Not Peace

  • Georgi Derluguian
  • April 10, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russia’s Niche Soft Power: Sources, Targets and Channels of Influence

  • Marlene Laruelle
  • April 8, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

A Weak Link in NATO? Bulgaria, Russia, and the Lure of Espionage

  • Mark Kramer
  • April 6, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russia’s Weak Strongman: The Perilous Bargains That Keep Putin in Power

  • Timothy Frye
  • April 5, 2021
View
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Special Issue: Russia’s 2020 Constitutional Reform: The Politics of Institutionalizing the Status-Quo

  • Regina Smyth and William E. Pomeranz
  • April 2, 2021

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.