Research on patterns of electoral revolution in post-Soviet countries strongly suggests that Afghanistan may be ripe for revolution in or before 2014, when elections are scheduled to choose President Hamid Karzai’s successor. These conditions include a sociopolitical context oriented more toward personal relationships than policy issues, a strongly presidentialist constitution, and an unpopular incumbent facing a lame duck syndrome. The American pullout scheduled for that same time will likely exacerbate the lame duck syndrome and magnify the risk. While the Taliban is one possible beneficiary, it is only one of several.
PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo No. 249
by Henry E. Hale