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PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
    • Ukraine Experts
    • About Membership
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcast
  • Online Academy
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    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
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RECOMMENDED
  • Illiberalism and Public Opinion Junctures in Russia’s War on Ukraine

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  • Policy Exchange Discussion & Memos: Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Long-Run Security (June 9)

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  • We want the war to end. But should calls for negotiating with Putin be taken seriously?

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  • Policy Briefs | BEAR Network-PONARS Eurasia Conference

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RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
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  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
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  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
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  • Commentary | Комментарии

New Policy Memo: Why Central Asia is More Stable than Eastern Europe: The Domestic Impact of Geopolitics

  • July 21, 2015
  • George Gavrilis

In the early 1990s, scholars, journalists, and political observers predicted that the new Central Asian states would descend into chaos and break apart. More than 20 years later, Central Asia’s states seem relatively stable, both at their political centers and outlying territories, including states like Tajikistan that were once embroiled in civil war. Eastern Europe, meanwhile, is littered with frozen and active conflicts and states whose rulers may very well envy the staying power of their Central Asian counterparts. 

With the exception of revolution-friendly Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia seems more stable than Eastern Europe on a number of fronts: the longevity of leaders, lack of civil or separatist conflict, and overall lower incidence of social protest. This stability has much to do with how rulers coerce populations, co-opt potential rivals, and collect revenues that keep them in power. Central Asia’s ruling elites have also proactively monitored unrest in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, Iran, and more recently the Middle East, devising measures to nip similar challenges to their authority in the bud.

In this memo I explore another factor—the geopolitical dimension. Central Asian rulers, on balance, are more adept at neutralizing destabilizing geopolitical competition. Perhaps more importantly, they make crucial foreign policy decisions behind closed doors and then sell them to domestic publics as winning strategies. In contrast, Moldovan and Ukrainian rulers poorly mediated contradictory geopolitical pulls on their countries, deepened social divisions over their countries’ directions, and intensified mobilization across opposing camps seeking victory for their favored national vision. The Ukraine conflict and the dynamics of the Euromaidan are only the more recent of such ruptures. More turmoil lies ahead.

Read More | PDF

George Gavrilis
Website | + posts
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International Relations, Boundaries, Higher Education, Oral History, Middle East, Central Asia, Afghanistan, Turkey
  • George Gavrilis
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/author/george-gavrilis/
    Are Eurasian Conflicts Really All That Eurasian? Lessons for Scholars and Policymakers
  • George Gavrilis
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/author/george-gavrilis/
    The Cold War, Post-Cold War, and the Academy: Policy Recommendations from an Oral History of Russian and Eurasian Studies
Related Topics
  • Central Asia
  • Gavrilis
  • Moldova
  • Russia
  • Ukraine
Previous Article
  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

Why Central Asia is More Stable than Eastern Europe: The Domestic Impact of Geopolitics

  • July 21, 2015
  • George Gavrilis
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The Air Tragedy That Condemned Putin’s Russia

  • July 21, 2015
  • Pavel Baev
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