Posts by Dmitry Gorenburg

Дмитрий Горенбург 09-13-2018
(WP) Military analysts around the world are keeping a close eye on Russia’s annual fall military maneuvers, as this year may turn out to be the largest post-Cold War show of force. Vostok-2018 kicks off this week in Russia’s Far East and the Pacific Ocean, along with auxiliary exercises before and after the main event. The big news this year is the addition of joint exercises with China. What do these military exercises entail, and what do you need to...
Дмитрий Горенбург 07-31-2018
(RMR blog) Last summer, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that Russia will continue to strengthen its forces around the Black Sea in order to “neutralize the security threat in the Black Sea region from NATO.” This rhetoric highlights the change in threat perceptions that has taken place on both sides in the region in recent years. Just 10 years ago, the Black Sea was touted as a model of naval cooperation among former adversaries. Collaborative...
Дмитрий Горенбург 04-24-2018
(Russiamil blog) Today's MCIS slides installment comes from Lt. General Sergey Kuralenko, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief for Peacekeeping Operations of the Russian Ground Forces. This comes from the breakout session on soft power as a tool to pursue military-political objectives. Sadly, it seems that the Russian MOD has not posted video or speech texts from the breakout sessions, so I'll provide a brief summary here, in addition to the slides. Kuralenko's...
Дмитрий Горенбург 04-20-2018
MCIS slides on regional security in the Middle East and North Africa Today’s installment of MCIS slides comes courtesy of Sam Charap, who attended the breakout session on regional security in the MENA region. The panel was led off by Lt. General Stanislav Gadzhimagomedov, the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff. Unfortunately, the Russian MOD has not made available speech texts or video of the breakout sessions. (...
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Дмитрий Горенбург 04-14-2018
(RMR) I wrote this up quickly on Saturday for friends, and it seemed to get a positive reaction, so I decided to expand a bit and send it out to the wider world… The United States (and the Trump administration) came out well. The would saw a measured response that showed US willingness to follow up words with actions, while also showing that Trump’s rash tweets do not equal rash actions (at least vis-a-vis Russia). Jim Mattis in particular showed that he...
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Дмитрий Горенбург 01-24-2018
(RMR) The last month or so has seen a number of good overviews in the Russian press of recent procurement and future plans of the Russian Air Force. The Russian Air Force has been substantially modernized and upgraded as part of the current State Armament Program (SAP-2020). The table below summarizes procurement in tactical aviation over the last ten years, as compiled by Moscow’s CAST think tank.

  Type earlier 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016...
Дмитрий Горенбург 01-18-2018
I’ve written a short report for an American Enterprise Institute project on possible Russian interventions in neighboring states. I was asked to discuss possible reasons for and trajectories of a Russian intervention in Kazakhstan. You can access the full report through AEI, but here’s an excerpt. Key Points - Kazakhstan’s size and Russia’s lack of significant military presence in the region make outright invasion unlikely. -...
Дмитрий Горенбург 12-25-2017
Для российской армии это был позорный случай, который произошел накануне парада Победы 8 мая 2015 года в Москве на Красной площади. Во время генеральной репетиции новейший и якобы самый лучший танк в мире «Армата» остановился посреди дороги, как вкопанный. Солдатам и автомашинам пришлось обходить и объезжать виновника этого происшествия, который стоил восемь миллионов евро. Козлом отпущения стал для министерства обороны водитель, который не знал, как ...
Дмитрий Горенбург 10-30-2017
I promised a readout of my impressions of the Valdai Club meeting. This was the first time I had been invited to attend this event and I was curious to get a sense of both the content of the discussions and the atmosphere. The four day conference was held at a Gazprom-owned mountain resort an hour outside of Sochi, though after the first day we had virtually no opportunities to go outside, much less leave the compound. When I decided to take a walk in the...
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Дмитрий Горенбург 09-19-2017
Сим Так, главный военный аналитик Force Analysis, и Дмитрий Горенбург, старший научный сотрудник CNA, рассказали Business Insider, что число 100 000 человек впервые прозвучало в украинском любительском блоге и основано на общем количестве вагонов, которые, по словам Москвы, будут использовать для транспортировки военных на место учений. Сим Так сказал, что «многие люди просто скопировали данные с этого «украинского блога». В любом случае «трудно понять,...

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