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PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • List of Members
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
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  • Events
    • Past Events
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RECOMMENDED
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RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
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  • In the News | Hовости

Произойдет ли в 2014 году революция в Афганистане?

  • November 12, 2013
  • Henry Hale

Исследование моделей пост-выборных революций в бывших советских республиках дает серьезные основания полагать, что в 2014 году, когда в Афганистане состоятся выборы, определяющие, кто сменит Хамида Карзая на посту президента, в этой стране может произойти революция. Впрочем, это может случиться и раньше. Среди факторов, указывающих на возможность такого варианта развития событий, следует упомянуть социально-политический контекст, который в большей степени сориентирован на личные связи, нежели на политические вопросы; конституцию, наделяющую президента обширными полномочиями, а также непопулярного главу государства, страдающего синдромом «хромой утки», – от него уже мало что зависит, и с ним мало кто считается. Тот факт, что вывод американских войск также назначен на будущий год, скорее всего, усугубит синдром «хромой утки» и значительно увеличит степень риска. И хотя Талибан, вероятно, выиграет от такого стечения обстоятельств, найдутся еще несколько сил, которым оно будет выгодно […]

Читать полностью  | © Эхо Москвы

Henry Hale
Website | + posts
Professor of Political Science and International Affairs; Co-director, Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES); Co-director, PONARS Eurasia

Affiliation

Elliott School of International Affairs, The George Washington University

Links

The George Washington University (Bio)

Expertise

Political Regimes, Ethnic Politics, Federalism, Democratization, Political Parties, Politics of Post-Soviet Countries
  • Henry Hale
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/henry-hale/
    Don’t Call It a Cold War: Findings From the Russian-American Relations Survey
  • Henry Hale
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/henry-hale/
    Russia’s referendum could keep Vladimir Putin in power until 2036. What do high-ranking Russians think?
  • Henry Hale
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/henry-hale/
    Will the Protesters Return? Civil Disobedience in the Time of Covid-19
  • Henry Hale
    https://www.ponarseurasia.org/members/henry-hale/
    Ukraine’s citizens worry about covid-19. And they still have to worry about the war.
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