PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees | New Voices on Eurasia with Volha Charnysh (Feb. 16)

    View
  • Conflicts in the North Caucasus Since 1991 | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
  • Will Ukraine Wind Up Making Territorial Concessions to Russia? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts

    View
  • Pro-Kremlin Propaganda’s Failure in Ukraine | New Voices on Eurasia with Aaron Erlich (Jan. 19)

    View
  • Kyiv-Washington Relations in Times of Colossal War: The Ultimate Test of a Strategic Partnership

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
  • Commentary | Комментарии

The Kremlin’s Message to Europe: It Could Have Been Worse

  • March 21, 2012
  • Andrey Makarychev

 

On March 19, the CDU/CSU fraction of the German Bundestag hosted a day-long discussion, “Russia After the Elections: Modernization or Stagnation?”. It became clear to me that Russia, in spite of the recent social and political changes (since December 2011) still lacks a clear message toward Europe. Equally unfortunate, Europe lacks a thoughtful strategy about how to deal with the Russian leadership, even on issues of common concern. At the conference, the Russian speakers delivered two different messages to the German public. The first one, articulated by former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Sergey Borisov (head of “Opora Rossii” business association) sounds quite simple: despite everything, Russia keeps moving in the right direction. It was hard to avoid the impression that there was another implicit signal behind Kudrin’s words: as soon as I am back in the government, everything will be even better. Both speakers were explicitly apolitical, though Kudrin, in his speech, tried to tacitly vindicate Russia’s claims for hegemony in the post-Soviet countries, reminding us that Russia, in the mid-1990s, took full responsibility for the entire debt of the Soviet Union.

Regarding post-Soviet integration, Borisov claimed that new regulations within the Russia–Belarus–Kazakhstan Customs Union have seriously augmented, among other factors, Putin’s popularity among small and middle-size entrepreneurs. Alexander Murychev, the executive vice president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, went even further. He argued that “German entrepreneurs feel good in Russia,” which “does much better than the crisis-ridden EU.” Therefore, it makes no sense for Germany to raise politically sensitive issues in relations with Moscow. Moreover, as Murychev said, “Germany is Putin’s favorite country in Europe.” This point was supported by Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of the “Russiain Global Affairs” journal who, quite unexpectedly and even counter-intuitively, claimed that “Putin is more interested in Europe than Medvedev.” Lukyanov’s reasoned: Russia cannot integrate with the West, and this is not Russia’s fault since all Western institutions are in crisis. Therefore, as one may guess, Moscow's only option is to pursue a more robust and self-asserting policy in the CIS region. In line with this logic, Lukyanov presumed that the military conflict in August 2008 played a positive role for Russia in terms of preventing Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. Quite pessimistically, he predicted that Russian–Georgian relations will remain stalled. This type of outlook ignores recent positive developments regarding compromise between Moscow and Tbilisi, such as negotiations on Russia’s WTO accession (mediated by the United States), Georgia’s relaxing of its visa policies, and Russia’s proposal to restore diplomatic relations. In Lukyanov’s view, the major threat to the Caucasus comes from outside, i.e., from the possibility of a military operation against Iran, which might have implications for Azerbaijan and Armenia. He was also quite explicit in pointing to the centrality of missile-defense issues, particularly in the context of the presidential election in the United States. Against this background, Lilia Shevtsova from the Moscow Carnegie Center offered a different, much less Kremlin-friendly outlook. She argued that modernization in Russia under the current regime is impossible, thus shedding doubt on the utility of the EU-Russia modernization partnership. Of course, not all Germans were pleased to hear that “the unreformed system is decomposing, and Titanic is bound to sink,” and that "they should have paid more attention to the dangers of leftist populism and nationalism," which holds currency in Russia’s protest movements. Undoubtedly, this perspective is a challenge not only for Russia, but for all its neighbors, including the EU. In a final Voltaire-ist thought: if Lukashenko did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him. Both Russia and the EU badly need Belarus as a reference point in their discourses: for the Germans, it reveals the negative connotations of Putin’s rule; for the Kremlin, it illustrates that "things" could have been much worse. Perhaps, this is one of the pivotal points inscribed in the Russian message sent to Europe.

Andrey Makarychev is a Guest Professor at the Free University of Berlin, blogging for PONARS Eurasia on the Russia-EU neighborhood.

Related Topics
  • Belarus
  • Europe
  • Kudrin
  • Lukashenko
  • Makarychev
  • Russia
Previous Article
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Russia has not sent troops to Syria

  • March 20, 2012
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
View
Next Article
  • Commentary | Комментарии

The Sivas Case and Turkey’s Credibility Problem Regarding Syria

  • March 23, 2012
  • Ayse Zarakol
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kyiv-Washington Relations in Times of Colossal War: The Ultimate Test of a Strategic Partnership

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • January 11, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Prevailing Soviet Legacies

  • Irina Busygina and Mikhail Filippov
  • December 27, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

In Russia’s Nuclear Messaging to West and Ukraine, Putin Plays Both Bad and Good Cop

  • Simon Saradzhyan
  • December 23, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Ukraine’s Asymmetric Responses to the Russian Invasion

  • Nurlan Aliyev
  • July 28, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем
  • Territorial Conflict

Dominating Ukraine’s Sky

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • March 5, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russian Anti-War Protests and the State’s Response

  • Lauren McCarthy
  • March 4, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Путин и Лукашенко

  • Konstantin Sonin
  • August 29, 2020
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Отравление оппозиционеров в России превратилось в регулярную практику

  • Vladimir Gel'man
  • August 22, 2020

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.