PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • Russia at War and the Islamic World

    View
  • Ukraine’s Ripple Effect on Russia’s Indo-Pacific Horizon

    View
  • The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees | New Voices on Eurasia with Volha Charnysh (Feb. 16)

    View
  • Conflicts in the North Caucasus Since 1991 | PONARS Eurasia Online Academy

    View
  • Will Ukraine Wind Up Making Territorial Concessions to Russia? Foreign Affairs Asks the Experts

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Ukraine and the “Big Movements” That Changed Europe

  • February 28, 2014
  • Andrey Makarychev

Among the most notorious aspects of the current debate on Ukraine are the multiple parallels between the ongoing developments within the country and the series of “big movements” that have shaped the European neighborhood over the past several decades. Considering the situation in Ukraine within the scope of these larger cycles of transformation is vitally important in order to avoid country-specific explanations and also to understand the wider context of the current Ukrainian transition.

The first reference point in history to consider is the period from 1989-1991 and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The recent demolition of many statues of Lenin all over Ukraine attests to the widespread intention among protestors to ultimately finalize the still unfinished de-communization of their country. These symbolic, yet still deeply political, gestures contain a strong anti-imperial impulse widely shared among Ukrainians today.

Parallels with what happened between 1989 and 1991 also evoke other associations related to the flimsy statehood of countries which dealt with internal ethnic and political splits, with the breakup of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia serving as the best illustrations of such occurrences within Europe. Ukraine, however, should be more concerned about the alarming comparisons with Moldova and Georgia, both of which lost portions of their territories in the process of their post-Soviet transformations. What makes Crimea comparable to Transnistria or Abkhazia is the resilience of the Soviet-style mentality and lifestyles in these territories which stand on Russia’s geopolitical periphery. This is exactly why Russia appears to support such separatists which reside across its borders.

Of course, parallels with the 1991 upheavals require a closer look at the status of Russia as a successor to the Soviet Union. This provision stretched far beyond the sphere of legality and had obvious political repercussions. The genealogy of Russian president Vladimir Putin's neo-imperial project dates back to the instrumentalization of the idea of succession, which was understood by Moscow as the legitimation of its special role in Russia’s “near abroad.” It is hard to say how seriously Moscow takes other legal norms of the initial post-Soviet years, in particular the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 in which Russia together with the US and UK assumed the role of acting as the international guarantors of Ukraine's independence. In fact, by directly supporting separatism in Crimea, Russia is intentionally trying to rewrite the whole post-1991 arrangements on Ukraine and is directly challenging the great power management-type of agreements of which Moscow has traditionally been in favor.

What may invalidate comparisons to the events of 1989-1991 is the fact that the Europe of today is deeply divided over its policy on Eastern Europe. On the one hand, dozens of people in Kyiv have given their lives to bring their country closer to Europe and it would be unthinkable for EU politicians to ignore the situation. On the other hand, the EU lacks effective instruments for balancing Russia, which has backfired through accusations of inaction and even betrayal of Ukraine.

With this in mind, it is appropriate to bring up a second reference point in today's debate on the situation in Ukraine: the proverbial Orange Revolution of 2004. Indeed, the people demonstrating on Maidan in 2014 were protesting against the same type of oppressive and corrupt regime and came up with a similar agenda for change as in 2004. International reactions to the events of 2004 and 2014 were also similar in that a group of ardent proponents for Ukraine's Europeanization in the West were countered by Russia's intransigent reaction. Yet, as the NATO Bucharest summit of 2008 made clear, the West (and particularly Europe) has been divided over its Russia policy and lacked any unified resolve to institutionally integrate Ukraine, even during the time when the country had a pro-Western government. In light of the de-facto annexation of Crimea by Moscow, it has become clear that the West is paying a dear price for adopting the strategy of trying to compromise with Russia. At the same time, recent examples suggest that while Russia can take away territories from neighboring countries, it does not mean that Russia cannot prevent Tbilisi or Chisinau from moving closer to Europe.

Finally, a third reference point to consider is the Arab Spring. This context is particularly uncomfortable for Ukraine since it implicitly associates the country with Northern Africa and the Middle East, portraying Ukraine as allegedly being closer to these regions than with Europe. Those who have chosen to compare Ukraine with Syria should realize that they (perhaps unintentionally) put into question the gist of the Ukrainian protest, which of course has always been its European normative core.

Ultimately, the narrative of Ukraine's transformation from the fall of the Soviet Union through the Orange Revolution and up to the troubles of today is to a large extent the story of Europe itself. In 1991, Europe was not only an undeniable magnet for eastern European states, but it also managed to successfully assist them in completing their process of integration. The color revolutions, meanwhile, have given much more controversial results: the EU lacked due influence over both Yuschenko and Saakashvili, and the outcomes of their presidencies ultimately strayed far from initial expectations. In 2014, we face a Europe which is divided domestically and is facing a potential confrontation with Russia, something which EU member states would like to avoid. Taking a closer look at these historical cycles indeed provides us with some good food for thought.

 

Related Topics
  • Makarychev
  • Ukraine
Previous Article
  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

Раздваивается ли дорога? Украина между Соглашением об ассоцииации с ЕС и Евроазиатским таможенным союзом

  • February 28, 2014
  • Oleksandr Sushko
View
Next Article
  • Policy Memos | Аналитика

Единая Россия и остальные: Попытки Кремля выстроить правящее большинство

  • February 28, 2014
  • Regina Smyth
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kyiv-Washington Relations in Times of Colossal War: The Ultimate Test of a Strategic Partnership

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • January 11, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Prevailing Soviet Legacies

  • Irina Busygina and Mikhail Filippov
  • December 27, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

In Russia’s Nuclear Messaging to West and Ukraine, Putin Plays Both Bad and Good Cop

  • Simon Saradzhyan
  • December 23, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Ukraine’s Asymmetric Responses to the Russian Invasion

  • Nurlan Aliyev
  • July 28, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем
  • Territorial Conflict

Dominating Ukraine’s Sky

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • March 5, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russian Anti-War Protests and the State’s Response

  • Lauren McCarthy
  • March 4, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Путин и Лукашенко

  • Konstantin Sonin
  • August 29, 2020
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Отравление оппозиционеров в России превратилось в регулярную практику

  • Vladimir Gel'man
  • August 22, 2020

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.