PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
Contacts

Address
1957 E St NW,
Washington, DC 20052

adminponars@gwu.edu
202.994.5915

NEWSLETTER
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Podcast
PONARS Eurasia
PONARS Eurasia
  • About
    • Contact
    • Membership
      • All Members
      • Core Members
      • Collegium Members
      • Associate Members
      • About Membership
    • Ukraine Experts
    • Executive Committee
  • Policy Memos
    • List of Policy Memos
    • Submissions
  • Podcasts
  • Online Academy
  • Events
    • Past Events
  • Recommended
  • Ukraine Experts
DIGITAL RESOURCES
digital resources

Bookstore 📚

Knowledge Hub

Course Syllabi

Point & Counterpoint

Policy Perspectives

RECOMMENDED
  • A Rock and a Hard Place: The Russian Opposition in a Time of War | New Voices on Eurasia with Jeremy Ladd (April 11)

    View
  • The Russia Program at GW (IERES)

    View
  • The Evolving Concerns of Russians after the Invasion | New Voices on Eurasia with Sasha de Vogel (March 9)

    View
  • PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference (March 3)

    View
  • Ukrainathon 2023 (Feb. 24-25)

    View
RSS PONARS Eurasia Podcast
  • The Putin-Xi Summit: What's New In Their Joint Communique ? February 23, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman speaks with Russian China experts Vita Spivak and Alexander Gabuev about the February meeting between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, and what it may tell us about where the Russian-Chinese relationship is headed.
  • Exploring the Russian Courts' Ruling to Liquidate the Memorial Society January 28, 2022
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with scholars Kelly Smith and Benjamin Nathans about the history, achievements, and impending shutdown of the Memorial Society, Russia's oldest and most venerable civic organization, and what its imminent liquidation portends for the Russian civil society.
  • Russia's 2021 census and the Kremlin's nationalities policy [Lipman Series 2021] December 9, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with social scientist Andrey Shcherbak about the quality of the data collected in the recent population census and the goals of Vladimir Putin's government's nationalities policy
  • Active citizens of any kind are under threat [Lipman Series 2021] November 5, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Alexander Verkhovsky about the Kremlin's ever expanding toolkit against political and civic activists, journalists, and other dissidents.
  • Russia's Legislative Elections followup [Lipman Series 2021] October 4, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Tanya Lokot and Nikolay Petrov about the results of Russia’s legislative elections and about what comes next.
  • Why Is the Kremlin Nervous? [Lipman Series 2021] September 14, 2021
    In this week’s PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Ben Noble and Nikolay Petrov about Russia’s September 17-19 legislative elections, repressive measures against electoral challengers, and whether to expect anything other than preordained results.
  • Vaccine Hesitancy in Russia, France, and the United States [Lipman Series 2021] August 31, 2021
    In this week's PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Denis Volkov, Naira Davlashyan, and Peter Slevin about why COVID-19 vaccination rates are still so low across the globe, comparing vaccine hesitant constituencies across Russia, France, and the United States.  
  • Is Russia Becoming More Soviet? [Lipman Series 2021] July 26, 2021
      In a new PONARS Eurasia Podcast episode, Maria Lipman chats with Maxim Trudolyubov about the current tightening of the Russian political sphere, asking whether or not it’s helpful to draw comparisons to the late Soviet period.
  • The Evolution of Russia's Political Regime [Lipman Series 2021] June 21, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Grigory Golosov and Henry Hale about the evolution of Russia's political regime, and what to expect in the lead-up to September's Duma elections.
  • Volodymyr Zelensky: Year Two [Lipman Series 2021] May 24, 2021
    In this week's episode of the PONARS Eurasia Podcast, Maria Lipman chats with Sergiy Kudelia and Georgiy Kasianov about Ukrainian President Zelensky's second year in office, and how he has handled the political turbulence of the past year.
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Charap: A Deal to Avert Disaster in Ukraine

  • March 10, 2014
  • Samuel Charap

Events in Ukraine are hurtling towards disaster for all involved. But there remains a glimmer of hope for a diplomatic solution that keeps the country whole. The contours of a potential deal are becoming clear. However, the actions taken by all parties in recent days have made the kind of compromises necessary to reach such an agreement nearly impossible. All sides must focus on creating off-ramps to de-escalation.

A deal to end the crisis would need to go beyond the current offer that the United States is promoting. A White House statement on Thursday described that offer: ‘the governments of Ukraine and Russia would hold direct talks, facilitated by the international community; international monitors could ensure that the rights of all Ukrainians are protected, including ethnic Russians; Russian forces would return to their bases; and the international community would work together to support the Ukrainian people as they prepare for elections in May.’ This all sounds quite reasonable, but Russia is not in a reasonable mood. And while sanctions could eventually change that mood, by that time it might be too late. If the West wants to prevent the annexation of Crimea or worse, its leaders must recognise that Moscow holds most of the cards in the short term.

Given what we know about Russia’s positions, a viable alternative might entail: in return for a phased Russian withdrawal, replacement of Russian troops with an international monitoring mission and indefinite postponement of the planned referendum on Crimea’s status, senior leaders from the US and the European Union would engage with the new Ukrainian government on the political settlement that emerged following the breakdown of the 21 February agreement. Thus far, there has been a somewhat unquestioning embrace of the new government by the West, particularly since the Russian invasion. While returning to the 21 February agreement itself, which would have seen former President Victor Yanukovich remain in office until the end of the year, is a non-starter, the status quo in Kiev need not be seen as beyond the scope for talks.

A reasonable compromise could involve redistributing ministerial portfolios so that all ‘force structures’ (law enforcement and national security) are headed by technocratic, compromise figures. Currently, the defence ministry, the national security and defence council, and the prosecutor general’s office are all in the hands of nationalist politicians. Efforts would be made to bring representatives of the south and east of the country into the government as well – currently there are none. Kiev would also refrain from threats against the de facto authorities in Crimea and close the criminal cases against them, instead offering talks on devolving competencies to the region in ways that are consistent with the Ukrainian constitution.

The problem right now is that getting to this kind of a deal is rapidly becoming impossible due to actions taken by all sides, particularly Russia. Moscow must recognise that its occupation of Crimea and threats of outright annexation within days make it politically suicidal for the Ukrainian government to offer any concessions. Russia also needs to understand that neither the US nor the EU has any choice but to pursue punitive measures if it continues to occupy Crimea. If the Kremlin is not bent on a land-grab at all costs, it needs to immediately start sending signals to that effect.

The US and the EU should also look for ways to avoid leaving President Vladimir Putin without a face-saving option of pulling back from the abyss that the annexation of Crimea represents. The clock is ticking: if progress cannot be made this week and the referendum goes forward on Sunday, and Russia accepts its results, all diplomatic options will be off the table. Sanctions and isolation will become the only courses available. But until then the West should focus on talks. If Russia is determined to annex Crimea, there is little that can be done to prevent this in the short term. However, if there is even a sliver of hope to avoid that outcome, all parties should be focused on making it a reality.

See the original post © IISS

Related Topics
  • Charap
  • Crimea
  • Ukraine
Previous Article
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Georgian Foreign Policy: The Quest for Sustainable Security

  • March 10, 2014
  • Kornely Kakachia
View
Next Article
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Maps of Russian and Ukrainian Military Forces

  • March 10, 2014
  • Dmitry Gorenburg
View
You May Also Like
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

The Desire to Possess: Russia’s War for Territory

  • Irina Busygina
  • February 8, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Kyiv-Washington Relations in Times of Colossal War: The Ultimate Test of a Strategic Partnership

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • January 11, 2023
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Prevailing Soviet Legacies

  • Irina Busygina and Mikhail Filippov
  • December 27, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

In Russia’s Nuclear Messaging to West and Ukraine, Putin Plays Both Bad and Good Cop

  • Simon Saradzhyan
  • December 23, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Ukraine’s Asymmetric Responses to the Russian Invasion

  • Nurlan Aliyev
  • July 28, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем
  • Territorial Conflict

Dominating Ukraine’s Sky

  • Volodymyr Dubovyk
  • March 5, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии
  • Recommended | Рекомендуем

Russian Anti-War Protests and the State’s Response

  • Lauren McCarthy
  • March 4, 2022
View
  • Commentary | Комментарии

Путин и Лукашенко

  • Konstantin Sonin
  • August 29, 2020

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

PONARS Eurasia
  • About
  • Membership
  • Policy Memos
  • Recommended
  • Events
Powered by narva.io

Permissions & Citation Guidelines

Input your search keywords and press Enter.