Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 554
Viatcheslav Morozov, Xymena Kurowska, Anatoly Reshetnikov 07 Dec 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) Russia has often been accused of violating the norms of “civilized” international interaction. It has engaged in small-scale incidents such as violations of national airspace and aerial brinkmanship to cyber-attacks and major violent acts such as military interventions, territorial annexations, and assassinations. In some of these cases, Moscow might simply interpret the rules differently. In others, it might be deliberately...
Policy Memo # 553
Aliaksei Kazharski 06 Dec 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) The 2014 crisis between Russia and Ukraine has produced new security concerns in Minsk related to a hypothetical Russian intervention and occupation of Belarus. But the crisis has also allowed Minsk to reap some short-term diplomatic benefits and improve its image in the West. When Ukraine became a target of Russian hybrid aggression, Belarusians naturally lost part of the attention they had enjoyed as victims of “Europe’s last...
Policy Memo # 552
Olexiy Haran, Petro Burkovsky 29 Nov 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) Next year, amid an ongoing conflict with Russia, sluggish economic recovery, and the rise of populism, Ukrainians will elect a new president (in March) and a new parliament (in October). Although the Ukrainian public is fragmented in its support of the six or seven frontrunners and parties, the outcome of both elections is not likely to bring radical change to Kyiv’s foreign and security policies—unless Russia decides to...
Policy Memo # 551
Stephen Crowley 28 Nov 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) What can truck drivers teach us about protest in Russia’s political system? Truck drivers throughout Russia suddenly joined together in dramatic mobilizations at the end of 2015. While those protests have largely dissipated, this case sheds light on two questions: how can widespread collective action over socio-economic issues spontaneously erupt, and how sharp is the divide in Russia between economic and political protests? The...
Policy Memo # 550
Mariya Omelicheva, Lawrence Markowitz 26 Nov 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) The 2018 FIFA World Cup shifted the attention of terrorism watchers to Russia. In advance of the tournament, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) launched an extensive social media campaign calling for attacks on the sporting event in retaliation for Russia’s intervention in Syria. Since 2015, ISIL has claimed responsibility for multiple terrorist incidents against Russian interests at home and abroad. Initially targeting...
Policy Memo # 549
Edward Holland 21 Nov 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) On October 3, 2017, Vladimir Vasiliev was appointed acting head of the republic of Dagestan. Vasiliev replaced the outgoing leader, Ramazan Abdulatipov, who had guided the region for just over four years and cited age as the key factor in his departure. In fact, Abdulatipov was generally ineffectual at combating corruption and the patronage networks that define the region’s economy. Vasiliev, an ethnic Russian who is only three years...
Policy Memo # 548
Scott Radnitz 16 Nov 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) For much of Vladimir Putin’s presidency, and especially since the 2011-12 Bolotnaya demonstrations, the Kremlin has claimed that Russia is threatened by internal enemies. Various actors have been singled out, including opposition activists, journalists, NGO representatives, and gay people. In many instances in which these groups are criticized, they are said to be sponsored by or doing the bidding of foreign—usually Western—...
Policy Memo # 547
Mark Kramer 16 Nov 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) Over the past twenty years, observers such as Stephen F. Cohen have argued that relations between the United States and Russia have been plunged into a “new Cold War,” which Cohen attributes to the failure of U.S. policymakers to take account of Russian security interests. Cohen started using the “new Cold War” characterization long before other analysts did, but the Cold War metaphor has gained wide popularity over the past...
Policy Memo # 546
Lauren McCarthy, Noah Buckley 29 Oct 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) Despite some recent, seemingly half-hearted efforts, the police remain one of Russia’s most unreformed bureaucracies and Russians’ trust in police has been low throughout the post-Soviet period. Survey data from the NGO Public Verdict and the Levada Center, which asked an annual question from 2010 to 2015 about whether respondents trust the police in their town or region, shows that in 2015 nearly half of respondents (47.2...
Policy Memo # 545
Anar Valiyev 26 Oct 2018
(PONARS Policy Memo) Over the last ten years, the United States has been gradually disengaging from the South Caucasus. This has tremendously affected the countries of the region, especially Georgia and Azerbaijan. The absence of the United States has left the region looking for alternative partners and investors such as Russia, Turkey, Iran, India, and China, with the latter being increasingly attentive toward the region since 2010 primarily due to...

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