Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 482
Oleksandr Fisun 14 Aug 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Today, Ukraine has a coalitional-presidentialist political system that can best be categorized as a semi-managed democracy. This model has four main features: consolidation of power by President Petro Poroshenko, formation of a pro-presidential coalition in parliament, integration of former president Viktor Yanukovych’s oligarchic representatives, and a rise in the importance of sub-national politics. This political system...
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Policy Memo # 481
Serghei Golunov 11 Aug 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Russian-EU relations have dramatically worsened since Russia’s involvement in Ukrainian affairs in 2014. Mutual mistrust and suspicion have rapidly increased and many cooperative efforts have been canceled. Russia-NATO tensions have escalated and each side has sanctioned the other while the Russian economy has faltered. What have been the precise effects of these dynamics on the Russian-EU borderland regions? Which spheres have...
Policy Memo # 480
Andrew Barnes 30 Jun 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Much analysis of how Ukraine’s economy operates takes place through the lens of International Monetary Fund (IMF) recommendations and reviews, which focus on budget deficits and anti-corruption efforts. Excessive emphasis on formal policy changes, however, and the “political will” to carry them out, ignores a number of forces at play in creating and maintaining real economic activity on the ground. While high-level...
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Policy Memo # 479
Elizabeth Wishnick 25 Jun 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Southern Europe has been a new area of focus for the Sino-Russian partnership in recent years. Cultural and religious ties with Orthodox majority states have long given Russia a special role in the region, but China is a newer player. Although each country has its own independent reasons for engaging economically with southern Europe—for China, it is the destination for its Belt and Road Initiative, while for Russia, the region...
Policy Memo # 478
Sebastien Peyrouse 16 Jun 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Over the past fifteen years, the EU has sought to gain visibility and influence in Central Asia. It has pressed soft power strategies and a values agenda, but mostly has structured its approach along pragmatic lines focusing on economic and security issues. Its policies toward the region take into consideration Russia’s “near abroad” interests, Afghanistan security, drug trafficking, migrants, refugees, and...
Policy Memo # 477
Andrey Makarychev 12 Jun 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) In the not so distant past, a large segment of scholarship concentrated on the possibility of institutional and normative cooperation between Europe and Russia. In a drastic shift, many academics are now analyzing Russia’s narrative techniques and their impact on EU member state political agendas. Central to the Kremlin’s efforts is the Russian World concept. It is a complex umbrella term encompassing a variety of...
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Policy Memo # 476
Sergey Minasyan 26 May 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Since the first days of Armenia’s independence, one of its top foreign policy priorities has been the European dimension. At the same time, Russia has always held a large role in South Caucasus politics, especially in Armenia, affecting Yerevan’s relations with Brussels. Once the Ukraine conflict erupted and Russia-West relations dramatically worsened, Armenia’s cooperation with Europe stalled. However, as has...
Policy Memo # 475
Farid Guliyev 16 May 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo)The oil price shock that began in mid-2014 has continued to reverberate in Azerbaijan, sending the economy into deep recession and negative real GDP growth rate (-2.4 percent in 2016). Declining volumes of oil production, which peaked at 1 million barrels a day (b/d) in 2010, and impending depletion of petroleum reserves over the next 15-20 years, alerted the government of the need to boost the non-oil sectors of the economy. In a...
Policy Memo # 474
Oleksandr Sushko 15 May 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Despite years of talks under the specter of the Minsk protocols, no rapprochement has taken place between Russia and Ukraine on the “special status” of the Donbas. In fact, the situation has steadily deteriorated. Both Minsk I (September 2014) and Minsk II (February 2015) called for immediate ceasefires but deadly skirmishes have continued in a never-halting stream and spikes in violence routinely occur. Major rounds...
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Policy Memo # 473
Yuriy Matsiyevsky 03 May 2017
(PONARS Policy Memo) Since Ukraine’s independence, no government in Kyiv has ever completely become authoritarian or democratic. While many states in the region have been seized by authoritarianism, Ukraine has been trapped by political hybridity. Fairly free elections take place and new faces come to power, but informal political practices endure and pyramids of power are re-established. Three years have passed since the Euromaidan, enough...

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