Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 347
Sener Akturk 15 Sep 2014
Immigration is often discussed in the framework of political economy and security studies. When discussed in the context of national identity, immigration is invariably depicted as a “challenge” or an “obstacle” for a nation-state. However, I argue that the impact of immigration on nation-building is contingent upon state policies toward ethnic diversity, something I call an “ethnicity regime.” Depending on the ethnicity regime in place, immigration can...
Policy Memo # 346
George Gavrilis 15 Sep 2014
Just months apart, the implosions of Ukraine and Iraq have alarmed many policymakers, journalists, and international affairs experts who worry that the modern state and its borders are on the cusp of a very dangerous transformation. On the eve of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, The Economist wrote, “Europe’s borderlands look more like a ring of fire.”[1] Appearing before the House Foreign Affairs Committee soon after Crimea joined...
Policy Memo # 345
Andrey Makarychev 15 Sep 2014
This memo discusses the implications of the current crisis in Russian-Ukrainian relations for the Baltic Sea region (BSR), for many years considered one of the greatest success stories of regional integration in Europe.[1] The Ukraine crisis has seriously challenged regional institutions and practices in which the region’s states have invested heavily. Two major questions loom. First, given the profound conflict between Russia and the European Union...
Policy Memo # 344
Judyth Twigg 09 Sep 2014
Today’s conflict in Ukraine hinges on perceptions of a stark East-West political divide. This memo assesses the extent to which geographic variation characterizes other elements of today’s Ukraine, mainly those related to human capital: demography, health, and migration. It also examines human capital factors as determinants or limits impacting the near- to medium-term trajectory of the country as a whole. In sum, demographic decline is even...
Policy Memo # 343
Scott Radnitz 08 Sep 2014
Since the Euromaidan protests began in November 2013, the Ukraine conflict has occurred on several levels. There is a military conflict between a state, a rebel movement, and another state. There is mass-level political and material support of a pro-European government and a pro-Russian rebellion. And there has been an information war in which all parties have worked to define the conflict on their terms. This last dimension is the subject of this memo....
Policy Memo # 342
Dmitry Gorenburg 08 Sep 2014
The May 2014 Moscow Conference on International Security (MCIS), sponsored by the Russian Ministry of Defense, was focused on the role of popular protest, and specifically color revolutions, in international security. The speakers, which included top Russian military and diplomatic officials such as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, argued that color revolutions are a new form of warfare invented by Western governments...
Policy Memo # 341
Vladimir Gelman 02 Sep 2014
In the 2000s, most experts considered the role of political opposition in Russia as peripheral at best. But with the protest wave of 2011-12, opposition actors and movements reentered the political arena. What factors contributed to this development? How did the opposition respond to major challenges and resolve its internal contradictions? What are its current prospects? This memo presents an account of the trajectory of opposition politics in Russia. It...
Policy Memo # 340
Irina Kobrinskaya 02 Sep 2014
The Ukraine crisis is transforming the global geopolitical order. It is eliciting new controversies and clarifying existing ones. It is also intensifying efforts to accelerate integration processes in both the East and West. The United States, with new zeal, is working with its partners in Europe and the Pacific. Meanwhile, Russia is trying to strengthen traditional partnerships in Eurasia and Asia, but since its fundamental economic and security...
Policy Memo # 339
Sergey Minasyan 02 Sep 2014
The one-hundredth anniversary of the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire will be commemorated in April 2015. Armenians and Turks plan to call special attention to this tragic centenary. The occasion provides a major opportunity for change in Armenian-Turkish relations. Whether that change will be toward rapprochement or a new rise in tension remains to be seen. Armenia Passes a Psychological Threshold The one-hundredth anniversary of the genocide is...
Policy Memo # 338
Adam Stulberg 29 Aug 2014
The current crisis in Ukraine has again foisted natural gas diplomacy to the fore of great power politics. Many view the gas weapon as Moscow’s continuing trump card for coercing Kyiv with impunity and keeping Europe at bay. As was the case during the 2006 and 2009 gas wars, the asymmetric trading relationships and state control over the Russian gas monopoly, Gazprom, seem to present Vladimir Putin’s regime with an effective resource...

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