Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 451
Scott Radnitz 29 Nov 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) The Central Asian states have endeavored over the past two decades to maintain the appropriate amount of distance from the regional hegemon, Russia. They have sought to balance good relations with it while preserving internal legitimacy and sovereignty. Their approach has hinged on three factors: (1) their structural dependence on Russia; (2) the level of Russia’s insistence on conformity to its policies; and (3) their...
Policy Memo # 450
(PONARS Policy Memo) Disagreements between Russia and the United States on how to counter violent extremism and terrorism are long-term and objective in nature. These stem from fundamentally different political systems, cultures, values, historical experiences, national interests, and global roles that are unlikely to disappear anytime soon. However, even as bilateral relations have deteriorated sharply since 2014 between the United States and Russia,...
Policy Memo # 449
Tomila Lankina 15 Nov 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) Pundits continue to debate whether economic shocks, public discontent at home, and isolation abroad will shake President Vladimir Putin’s regime. Much of the commentary on Putin’s survival strategies has focused on repression and aggressive military posturing. This somewhat obscures another important strategy: being highly sensitive to the public mood, deftly reacting to public sentiment, and effecting rapid policy shifts...
Policy Memo # 448
Dmitry Gorenburg 11 Nov 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) Russian foreign policy is driven by the political elites’ search for a new basis for national self-esteem after the collapse of the Soviet Union disrupted old Soviet identities. The collapse did not discredit the Soviet Union’s status as a great power, which has thus remained a core aspiration for Russian political elites. As a result of their perception of Russia’s appropriate status in the world and in their region...
Policy Memo # 447
Pavel Baev 08 Nov 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) No amount of propaganda can hide the fact that the Russian-Chinese partnership is not progressing well. Economic cooperation was supposed to constitute a solid foundation for a new surge in bilateral ties, as heralded in mid-2014 against the background of the Ukraine conflict and heightened Russia-West confrontation. In reality, trade volume between the two countries contracted by about a third in 2015, which they explained away with...
Policy Memo # 446
Paul Goode 04 Nov 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) Soon after assuming the presidency in 2012, Vladimir Putin launched a series of political and economic reforms intended to strengthen the hand of the central government over Russia’s regions, consolidate presidential executive control over parliament, and restore the state’s solvency. While these various moves earned a great deal of scholarly and journalistic attention, the simultaneous initiative to consolidate society...
Policy Memo # 445
Mikhail Troitskiy 27 Oct 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) Despite multiple official declarations of non-adversarial intentions issued by the United States and Russia over the past quarter-century, both sides have been unable to avoid repeated bouts of conflict escalation. This “unnecessary rivalry” can be explained in part as a “status dilemma”—a concept modeled on the better-known notion of “security dilemma.” In the groundbreaking volume Status in...
Policy Memo # 444
Ayse Zarakol 21 Oct 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) By the summer of 2016, it had become relatively commonplace in Western policy circles to wonder if Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was following in the footsteps of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and, if so, how far down that path he would take Turkey. The failed coup attempt in Turkey on July 15 changed many dynamics within Turkey in unpredictable ways. Many questions that have been raised can now be answered more...
Policy Memo # 443
Samuel Charap 19 Oct 2016
​(PONARS Policy Memo) Russia has used its military beyond its borders with unprecedented frequency in the period since the invasion of Crimea in February 2014. Depending on how one counts, there are up to five cases of the use of force that followed Crimea:  - Support for the insurgency in the Donbas from March 2014.  - Direct military intervention that culminated in Ilovaisk in late August 2014.  - Intervention that ended with...
Policy Memo # 442
George Gavrilis 06 Oct 2016
(PONARS Policy Memo) In 2011, four Central Asian states signed a Joint Plan of Action in Ashgabat pledging to work together to counter radicalization and terrorism in the region. Since then, Central Asia’s states have fared far better than other world regions in avoiding or suppressing terrorism; indeed, the recent attacks in Bishkek and Kazakhstan are a reminder of how rare deadly terrorist attacks are in Central Asia in comparison to Europe, the...

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