Policy Memos | Аналитические записки

Policy Memo # 642
Peter Rutland 26 Mar 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) This month saw the dramatic outbreak of an oil price war launched by Saudi Arabia that caused the price of oil to plunge from $55 to $25 a barrel. While Russia’s $570 billion reserves mean that it can ride out the crisis in the near future, the episode calls into question the argument that Russia is an “energy superpower” whose oil and gas exports boost its international influence. Russia’s policymakers have always wanted...
Policy Memo # 641
Marlene Laruelle, Madeline McCann 24 Mar 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Pandemics are not only a medical and social issue. They also are deeply political—even geopolitical—and feed strong-state efforts to regulate human bodies in a way some refer to as “biopolitics.” COVID-19 promises to fundamentally reshape the way citizens interpret individual and collective safety, as well as the ways in which state structures conceptualize and prepare themselves for major health crises. State measures...
Policy Memo # 640
Andrey Semenov 20 Mar 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Among the distinctive features of Vladimir Putin’s 20 years in power, the resurgence of the state stands apart. Considered necessary after the turbulent transition from communism in the 1990s, rebuilding the political order quickly turned into encroachment on fundamental political and civil rights, elimination of independent centers of power, and consolidation of authoritarianism. The coercive apparatus grew at an even...
Policy Memo # 639
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The U.S. intelligence community seems to believe that Russia has intervened and continues to intervene in American elections on behalf of both President Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders. No hard proof of those allegations is available in the public domain. The February 21 report about the alleged Russian interference in support of Sanders’s campaign for the presidential nomination was thin on details and, for many...
Policy Memo # 638
Henry Hale 11 Mar 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Speaking to the lower house of parliament on March 10, Vladimir Putin seemingly affirmed what many have suspected all along: that he intends to stay in power well beyond the expiration of his current presidential term in 2024. He did this by endorsing a constitutional amendment that would effectively reset his term count if approved in an April 22 plebiscite. Many voters may fear this is their last chance to keep him...
Tags:Hale, Russia
Policy Memo # 637
Tetyana Malyarenko, Stefan Wolff 24 Feb 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) History is often said to repeat itself or at least to rhyme. Decentralization in Ukraine has been on and off the agenda of successive governments since the country’s independence in 1991. Originally, the main rationale was to reform the old Soviet system in order to adapt to the realities of a liberal democratic system and a market-driven economy. Several proposals envisaged far-reaching decentralization, but the...
Policy Memo # 636
Stephan De Spiegeleire, Khrystyna Holynska, Yevhen Sapolovych 13 Feb 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Great power assertiveness is back, with Russia once again playing a leading role. This memo introduces some new data sources—in the form of uniquely rich automated event datasets—that offer unprecedented promise to start tracking the empirical evidence behind this assertiveness in more detail. In what follows, we draw on these new data to provide unprecedented documentation of Russia’s growing assertiveness over the past...
Policy Memo # 635
Dmitry Adamsky 10 Feb 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The role of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) in Russian national identity, ideology, and politics has grown immensely during the last decades. The faith-strategy nexus in Russia is a topic that has remained largely outside the scope of research. Scholars exploring Russian state-Church relations have paid important but limited attention to the impact of faith on foreign policy, in particular on the Syria operation. Works on...
Policy Memo # 634
Vladimir Gelman, Margarita Zavadskaya 30 Jan 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Why are some countries governed worse than others? In particular, why is contemporary Russia governed so much worse than one would expect given its degree of socio-economic development? As demonstrated in numerous recent assessments, Russia exhibits many major features of bad governance, including lack and/or perversion of the rule of law, rent-seeking, corruption, poor quality of state regulation, widespread abuse of public...
Policy Memo # 633
Adam Stulberg, Jonathan Darsey 02 Jan 2020
(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) Western sanctions on Russia have failed demonstratively to secure Moscow’s formal compliance with stated objectives. Both sides seem worlds apart in their expectations and approaches; expert communities and policymakers have embraced fundamentally different understandings of the meaning, objectives, processes, and legitimacy of sanctions-related behavior. This reinforces asymmetrical preferences, muddles threats, rationalizes...